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  #1  
Old 03-29-2011, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by justindew View Post
By the way, this "slow" horse improved his top Beyer by 13 points in his sophomore debut, and has a graded two-turn win over the CD surface.
If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.
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Old 03-29-2011, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.
Jesustapdancingchrist.

To me, as I explained earlier, a "wild card" is a horse whose talent level isn't was well established as many of his opponents. Santiva was not fast enough to compete with the likes of Uncle Mo, The Factor, etc. as a juvenile. In his only race this year, he ran well and earned a much higher fig than anything he had produced last year. He will have one more race before the Derby, and that race will be over synthetic- meaning it won't tell me all I would like to know about his form or talent level. Thus, at least as far as I am concerned, there will be a big question mark next to his name.

So I called him a wild card.
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  #3  
Old 03-29-2011, 04:54 PM
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So I called him a wild card.
I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.
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  #4  
Old 03-29-2011, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.
Now you're being completely ridiculous as opposed to just ridiculous.
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  #5  
Old 03-29-2011, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.
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  #6  
Old 03-29-2011, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by miraja2 View Post
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.
Justin Dew now has a spokesman?
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  #7  
Old 03-29-2011, 07:02 PM
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Justin Dew now has a spokesman?
For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.
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  #8  
Old 03-29-2011, 07:34 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.
Raising your game won't be hard. Lowering it would be impossible.

I consider you a flatliner.
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Old 03-29-2011, 08:05 PM
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I consider you a flatliner.
I know of no one on DT who would disagree with you there. But I've got some posts planned for the coming weeks that will really knock your socks off.

You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.
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Old 03-29-2011, 08:41 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.

I wouldn't want you to feel like something you're not......special.

If it makes you feel better, I never friended RockHardTen either.
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  #11  
Old 03-30-2011, 10:19 AM
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Justin Dew now has a spokesman?
Yep....he hired me a few weeks ago.
I thought stating that everything he says isn't "automatically wrong" just because he is the one saying it was a nice, conservative way to get started on the job.

I guess not. Too much too soon.

Perhaps I should have started even more conservatively and said something like..."hey he's bound to be at least partially right one of these days, right?" Either way, I plan to execute this assignment so wonderfully that DrugS is facebooking him for handicapping tips by the middle of June.
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  #12  
Old 03-29-2011, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by miraja2 View Post
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.
Thanks, I think.
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  #13  
Old 03-29-2011, 07:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2 View Post
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.
Spare me. The gripe is clearly with the wording "complete wild card". The horse is hardly that. Santiva has enough of a relevant race record to go on if he were to make the Kentucky Derby field.

Canonero III, he ain't.
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  #14  
Old 03-30-2011, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
The gripe is clearly with the wording "complete wild card". The horse is hardly that. Santiva has enough of a relevant race record to go on if he were to make the Kentucky Derby field.
I don't necessarily disagree, and this horse doesn't strike me as a likely Derby contender. And you are right that calling him a "complete" wild card was probably a bit of an overstatement by my client.
But I still think the point about a horse who appears as if he might possibly be an improving 3yo on dirt making his last derby prep over synthetic being something of an unknown quantity if he runs in the Derby is a reasonable enough point.
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  #15  
Old 03-30-2011, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by miraja2 View Post
I don't necessarily disagree, and this horse doesn't strike me as a likely Derby contender. And you are right that calling him a "complete" wild card was probably a bit of an overstatement by my client.
But I still think the point about a horse who appears as if he might possibly be an improving 3yo on dirt making his last derby prep over synthetic being something of an unknown quantity if he runs in the Derby is a reasonable enough point.
"Might" be improving? As was pointed out (by the same poster who seems to be completely perplexed by the horse's form), the horse went from a 78 Beyer in his final 2yo start to a 91 in his 3yo debut.

I suppose an open length victory, in a major prep race, on a natural dirt surface, with a triple digit Beyer will ram the point home; but what would that do to the horse's price on Derby Day?
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  #16  
Old 04-02-2011, 04:52 PM
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Jaycito staying home for Santa Anita Derby..
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...source=twitter

SANTA ANITA DERBY -- Probables

Premier Pegasus
Comma to the Top
Silver Medallion
Anthony's Cross
Bench Points
Indian Winter
Mr. Commons
Offlee Wild Boys
Celestic Night
Quail Hill
Jaycito
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  #17  
Old 04-02-2011, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Jaycito staying home for Santa Anita Derby..
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...source=twitter
Interesting!

Hmmmmm

An update, Son of Posse is going into the Wood to screw that race up, per the Parx FB page and the owners FB page. Dude has lost his mind
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