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#1
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![]() First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.
However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors. Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one. |
#2
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#3
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This I completely agree with. That poster also seemed to be indicating that Tagg skipped the BC with Funny Cide as well when that was really just a matter of timing and experience more than anything else. Skipping the Juvenile because of the jinx is nonsensical. |
#4
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![]() I am going back to the original Champagne and run it all over again with the same odds. Rerun the race. There is one horse that I will take everytime. Everytime.
Pegasus Wind. A little racing luck. This horse wins. At 21-1. With Scat Daddy getting caught up a bit, NoBiz having a tougher race. Any sane person who understands numbers would take Pegasus Wind as a betting proposition. Cunningham gave it away again by throwing Albert the Great in. He has clearly taught horses how to read pedigrees... and his opinions of them. Holy snakes alive... you are a madman, but fun. Keep em coming. |
#5
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![]() What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.
Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year. In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts. Last edited by kentuckyrosesinmay : 10-17-2006 at 08:35 PM. |
#6
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![]() WHy are you guys arguing?
Its obvious that Tagg felt three weeks back and a ship is just too hard. Kudos too him. As far as King's assertion, any decent statistical whiz can show him the error of his contention, which is asinine at best. King, hello? The BC is a huge purse race that attracts horses from all over the country. The Remsen is a local race run at Aqu on the same weekend as the KY jockey club Cup at CD, and close enough to the Hollywood race that a horse most often doesnt race in both(Tocchet being the exception). You try and compare the two races, not realizing that you are showing an amazingly strong sample of NY based horses who actually went on to do things in the crown. You must realize that by limiting the sample to strictly Ny horses(or northeast) you cant accuartely compare it to the BC. Tagg is not dodging anything. Tagg is a smart and responsible horseman who is doing the right thing. |
#7
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#8
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#9
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on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday! |
#10
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#11
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http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html |
#12
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#13
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#14
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#15
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#16
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#17
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#18
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![]() Horses two years old are still growing. They should not be raced imo. When they race, they compete. When they compete they run too hard. They are herd animals. They are bred to stay with or better, ahead of the group. Not like training where you can back them off and control things.
However, I will say I am really enjoying the reading on these preps and some of the stats thrown in. Thanks for sharing and looking all that up. This is really a good board. |
#19
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#20
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Remsen Pine Bluff Go for Gin Thunder Gulch (2) Empire Maker Hollywood Futurity Snow Chief Ferdinand Alysheba (2) AP Indy Thunder Gulch (2) Real Quiet (2) Point Given (2) Giacomo U can take out Thunder Gulch since he ran in both races. # of TC races winners (total number of TC races won) Remsen-3 (3) Futurity-7 (10) If u looked at the horses from both races that didn't win a TC race but hit the board in one of them, u would add: Remsen Bluegrass Cat Futurity Stephan's Odyssey Best Pal Dance Floor Casual Lies That doesn't even include horses like Captain Steve, Millennium Wind, High Yield, Lion Heart, Temperate Sil, Brocco, and Afternoon Deelites, all of whom went on to win grade one races as 3yos after hitting the board in the Futurity. The Remsen claims Java Gold, Talinum, Skip Away, Coronado's Quest. So maybe if Tagg is skipping the BC because he's looking for a successful sophomore colt, he should skip the Remsen and come West. Of course, now that the Futurity will be run on JunkTrack, it's going to become an irrelevant race. A quick check shows that there have only been two horses from the KY Jockey Club to win a TC race over the same period (Editor's Note and Real Quiet) for a total of three wins.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |