Gotta love Watchmaker....

[blackthroatedwind]

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.

This I completely agree with. That poster also seemed to be indicating that Tagg skipped the BC with Funny Cide as well when that was really just a matter of timing and experience more than anything else.

Skipping the Juvenile because of the jinx is nonsensical.

I am going back to the original Champagne and run it all over again with the same odds. Rerun the race. There is one horse that I will take everytime. Everytime.

Pegasus Wind. A little racing luck. This horse wins. At 21-1. With Scat Daddy getting caught up a bit, NoBiz having a tougher race. Any sane person who understands numbers would take Pegasus Wind as a betting proposition.

Cunningham gave it away again by throwing Albert the Great in. He has clearly taught horses how to read pedigrees... and his opinions of them. Holy snakes alive... you are a madman, but fun. Keep em coming.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

WHy are you guys arguing?
Its obvious that Tagg felt three weeks back and a ship is just too hard. Kudos too him.
As far as King's assertion, any decent statistical whiz can show him the error of his contention, which is asinine at best.
King, hello?
The BC is a huge purse race that attracts horses from all over the country.
The Remsen is a local race run at Aqu on the same weekend as the KY jockey club Cup at CD, and close enough to the Hollywood race that a horse most often doesnt race in both(Tocchet being the exception).
You try and compare the two races, not realizing that you are showing an amazingly strong sample of NY based horses who actually went on to do things in the crown. You must realize that by limiting the sample to strictly Ny horses(or northeast) you cant accuartely compare it to the BC.
Tagg is not dodging anything.
Tagg is a smart and responsible horseman who is doing the right thing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

Read my post above. Tagg ran Funny Cide the week before the BCJ in the NYB Sleepy Hollow, and didn't really consider the Derby trail until AFTER that race, which was truly his breakout performance and made him a "contender".

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

Read my post above. Tagg ran Funny Cide the week before the BCJ in the NYB Sleepy Hollow, and didn't really consider the Derby trail until AFTER that race, which was truly his breakout performance and made him a "contender".

No, Tagg was considering the Derby with the horse even before his Bertram Bongard performance. In the Bertram Bongard, FC won by nine lengths while under a strangle hold, posted a 103 BSF (the highest in the country at the time for two year olds), and broke the stakes record. That is when he began wondering whether or not to enter the horse in the Sleepy Hollow or the BCJ, and decided on the first for the reasons that I stated in my other post. A lot of people were pushing Tagg to enter FC in the BCJ just after the Bertram Bongard too.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

No, Tagg was considering the Derby with the horse even before his Bertram Bongard performance. In the Bertram Bongard, FC won by nine lengths while under a strangle hold, posted a 103 BSF (the highest in the country at the time for two year olds), and broke the stakes record. That is when he began wondering whether or not to enter the horse in the Sleepy Hollow or the BCJ, and decided on the first for the reasons that I stated in my other post. A lot of people were pushing Tagg to enter FC in the BCJ just after the Bertram Bongard too.

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

Excuse me?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

Can u clue me in?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Can u clue me in?

Someone brought up the BC Juvenile curse on a thread on here a week or so back and Oracle replied with a post that included the list of all the horses that ran in the Juvy and went on to win Triple Crown races.

Horses two years old are still growing. They should not be raced imo. When they race, they compete. When they compete they run too hard. They are herd animals. They are bred to stay with or better, ahead of the group. Not like training where you can back them off and control things.

However, I will say I am really enjoying the reading on these preps and some of the stats thrown in. Thanks for sharing and looking all that up. This is really a good board.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

Look, it is true. It is extremely hard on them. In general, it is very hard on two year olds to put them in a race such as the BCJ because of the level of competition. No race is a better indicator of future 3 yo success because, for the most part, the best and fastest two year olds in the country race in the BCJ. Just because it is the best two year old race in the country, doesn't mean that a lot of the horses don't have serious issues after running in that race. Some aren't mature enough to handle it. Sure, some go on without too many problems, but a lot don't, and that was the point that I was trying to make. That IS the reason that Tagg won't run his two year olds in the race. In fact, I was really surprised when he threw Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Champagne, but then again, the Champagne isn't near the race that the BCJ is. The BCJ's level of competition is unreal.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

Just for the sake of comparing, I looked at some horses from the Hollywood Futurity to see how they've done. Again, this is horses that ran 1-2-3 in either of the races and went on to win a Classic the following year:

Remsen
Pine Bluff
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

Hollywood Futurity
Snow Chief
Ferdinand
Alysheba (2)
AP Indy
Thunder Gulch (2)
Real Quiet (2)
Point Given (2)
Giacomo

U can take out Thunder Gulch since he ran in both races.

# of TC races winners (total number of TC races won)
Remsen-3 (3)
Futurity-7 (10)

If u looked at the horses from both races that didn't win a TC race but hit the board in one of them, u would add:

Remsen
Bluegrass Cat

Futurity
Stephan's Odyssey
Best Pal
Dance Floor
Casual Lies

That doesn't even include horses like Captain Steve, Millennium Wind, High Yield, Lion Heart, Temperate Sil, Brocco, and Afternoon Deelites, all of whom went on to win grade one races as 3yos after hitting the board in the Futurity. The Remsen claims Java Gold, Talinum, Skip Away, Coronado's Quest.

So maybe if Tagg is skipping the BC because he's looking for a successful sophomore colt, he should skip the Remsen and come West. Of course, now that the Futurity will be run on JunkTrack, it's going to become an irrelevant race.

A quick check shows that there have only been two horses from the KY Jockey Club to win a TC race over the same period (Editor's Note and Real Quiet) for a total of three wins.