Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The bottomline is that he was beaten by many horses in the race...

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

Thank you!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

Hows the example of Cohiba Miss wiring the field in the Juvenile Fillies race and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths?
Did anyone see her previous races? Are you kidding me?
Thats a textbook case of one horse handling the surface and the others just not.
If all races were run like that one, I'd quit playing the game.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Hows the example of Cohiba Miss wiring the field in the Juvenile Fillies race and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths?
Did anyone see her previous races? Are you kidding me?
Thats a textbook case of one horse handling the surface and the others just not.
If all races were run like that one, I'd quit playing the game.

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.

Come on, he caught the goldest of gold rails that day.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Come on, he caught the goldest of gold rails that day.

Yes he did, he caught a conveyor belt. But it was indeed a good field. and yes I realize that Sun King wasn't fully cranked that day.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.

Very good points, especially the highlighted....I guess I'm more optimistic about it because of the benefits to the physical being of the horse. I do like the challenge it brings in capping also, I'm a small better, so the bigger prices is a huge bonus.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Very good points, especially the highlighted....I guess I'm more optimistic about it because of the benefits to the physical being of the horse. I do like the challenge it brings in capping also, I'm a small better, so the bigger prices is a huge bonus.

No question that for one dollar spread out players in gimmicks like pik-3's and tri's that you might be able to get lucky and catch a big one.
But for guys who like to make larger win bets or exactas, you'd have to be insane to make a 200 straight exacta on this stuff. May as well just drop it in the Salvation Army bucket on the way in and turn around and go home and save the admission cost.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

The bottomline is that its not a 'dirt alternative'...its Polytrack...not dirt or even close to dirt other than its tan in color....it might as well be called a 'turf alternative' too....

Its not dirt...its not turf...it is rubber and it is very soft and cushiony....imagine runnnig on the road, and then running on the grass....and now imagine running on a bed mattress....it is DIFFERENT....different horses with different bulids get over it just like turf horses are bred to handle the grass with their big, dish feet and high action to easily pick their feet up out of the tall grass...

It is all BIOMECHANICS.....good dirt horses usually like a 'fast' surface - like a road....when you have that much bounce and cushion in the Poltrack it changes the entire feel for the horse and the entire way a horse has to adjust his echanics to compensate for the spring and cushion in the track....

Think about it for a second......MANY Throughbreds that are great dirt actors love to 'hear their feet rattle' - to use an old expression.....this stuff is too boyant and bouncy....Believe me, I collected about 5 pounds of it when was at Turfway earlier this year and I walked over the track for a half a mile studying it....it is NOT a dirt alternative...no way, no how...

Mark my words when I tell you that if this track is instituted everywhere, it will change the way we breed horses today....Horses like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat would NOT be leading sires on this surface....they pass on breeding to be superior on dirt, not rubber....who knows, horse like Lemon Drop Kid could be the next great stallion if he passes down the mechanics to his progeny to be top class on the rubber.....

It is VERY discouraging for a traditionalist in this sport because I understand the deeper effects that it will have on our game and IT WILL CHANGE THE BREED...I, for one, don't like the fact that we are essentially inventing a new surface which will invent a new way to breed horses and change the roots of our successful and classical bloodlines going forward...

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The bottomline is that its not a 'dirt alternative'...its Polytrack...not dirt or even close to dirt other than its tan in color....it might as well be called a 'turf alternative' too....

Its not dirt...its not turf...it is rubber and it is very soft and cushiony....imagine runnnig on the road, and then running on the grass....and now imagine running on a bed mattress....it is DIFFERENT....different horses with different bulids get over it just like turf horses are bred to handle the grass with their big, dish feet and high action to easily pick their feet up out of the tall grass...

It is all BIOMECHANICS.....good dirt horses usually like a 'fast' surface - like a road....when you have that much bounce and cushion in the Poltrack it changes the entire feel for the horse and the entire way a horse has to adjust his echanics to compensate for the spring and cushion in the track....

Think about it for a second......MANY Throughbreds that are great dirt actors love to 'hear their feet rattle' - to use an old expression.....this stuff is too boyant and bouncy....Believe me, I collected about 5 pounds of it when was at Turfway earlier this year and I walked over the track for a half a mile studying it....it is NOT a dirt alternative...no way, no how...

Mark my words when I tell you that if this track is instituted everywhere, it will change the way we breed horses today....Horses like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat would NOT be leading sires on this surface....they pass on breeding to be superior on dirt, not rubber....who knows, horse like Lemon Drop Kid could be the next great stallion if he passes down the mechanics to his progeny to be top class on the rubber.....

It is VERY discouraging for a traditionalist in this sport because I understand the deeper effects that it will have on our game and IT WILL CHANGE THE BREED...I, for one, don't like the fact that we are essentially inventing a new surface which will invent a new way to breed horses and change the roots of our successful and classical bloodlines going forward...

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

Ditto. Well written and provided me with a whole new perspective.

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Ditto. Well written and provided me with a whole new perspective.

Many horses like running on firm turf or firm dirt surfaces. Hence the term "hearing their feet rattle". Not every horse is as brave as others. When they run on footing that is unsure, they don't try their best.
Its why on soft turf courses that form changes and the races often get strung out with many stragglers in the rear obviously not trying(ahem, ahem, cough cough cough POLYTRACK!).

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

It is a phrase regarding horses that love hard and fast dirt tracks - which many of them do....again, its like running on a road or dirt path....yes, they are more hard on the bones because the surface is much tighter and the concussion is greater, but this is how we've bred and run horses for over a hundred years in America.....sires like Storm Cat ad A.P. indy are successful because they were bred to be superior over this hard, firm surface that is dirt...their genetic makeup and genetic biomechanics are fit to be the premier dirt horses in the world.....now on Polytrack we may see horses like Storm Cat become obsolete because the genetics of that lines may not like a softer surface that is more tiring, etc....I realize that mayu be an overdramatic statement, but there WILL be some significant changes to the game we've grown to love through hundreds of years of traditionif we install Polytrack everywhere.....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It is a phrase regarding horses that love hard and fast dirt tracks - which many of them do....again, its like running on a road or dirt path....yes, they are more hard on the bones because the surface is much tighter and the concussion is greater, but this is how we've bred and run horses for over a hundred years in America.....sires like Storm Cat ad A.P. indy are successful because they were bred to be superior over this hard, firm surface that is dirt...their genetic makeup and genetic biomechanics are fit to be the premier dirt horses in the world.....now on Polytrack we may see horses like Storm Cat become obsolete because the genetics of that lines may not like a softer surface that is more tiring, etc....I realize that mayu be an overdramatic statement, but there WILL be some significant changes to the game we've grown to love through hundreds of years of traditionif we install Polytrack everywhere.....

You mean evolution and breeding hasn't been geared towards ground up tires covered with wax. I'm absolutely ****ing shocked.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

His paycheck was fourth place money....say what you will, he ran fourth...I agree he got a bad ride but thats racing...who knows what would have happened had he gotten through (I thought there was a hole for him and he chickened out to be honest with you and it close through ggod race riding)...yes, he lost a few lengths but I'm not going to annoint ANY horse in the winner's circle on Polytrack just because I thought they had a bad ride and MAY have been best.....who knows, I've seen MANY big middle moves or blow-ups on the far turn on that surface where you are just sure a horse is going to win and then they flatten out....that surface is too hard to figure out for anybody to come on here and say that Premium Tap was the winner with a clean trip...maybe on dirt, but not that crap...I really believe that..

..Oh, and its not like hes a world beater and we can make a case that he was POUNDS the best because he wasn't pounds the best coming in....he barely beat Second of June last out for Gods sake...

Again, thye point is that Poltrack ruins the stakes program at tracks because shippers are at a HUGE disadvantage.....check out all of the stakes run last weekend and the Lane's End result earlier this year.....I've never seen so many longshots win in my life, and likewise I've nevere seen so many horses run horrible who had great dirt form coming in.....