Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.