A question for all of you planning to bet Sidney's Candy

[slotdirt]

I'm coming around to Sidney's Candy. Every year after 2007, I tell myself that I'm not going to get suckered into betting horses who prep on poly, but after the way Line of David ran in Arkansas, and even Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel, I dont' see any reason why Sidney's Candy can't win this thing. He's way more likely than 75 percent of the field.

[tector]

A sealed race track--IF that is what he gets--may suit him.

[slotdirt]

BTW, ateam - I think it might be time to resurrect this blog.

[NTamm1215]

I'm loving how many people are getting onto Sidney's Candy. I'll be here to eat a big pile of crow if he loses.

NT

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm loving how many people are getting onto Sidney's Candy. I'll be here to eat a big pile of crow if he loses.

NT

Why would you eat crow if he loses ?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Why would you eat crow if he loses ?

I started this thread to ask people what they liked about this horse. I think he's shaping up as a Saarlandesque underlay and have serious reservations about him making an impact on this race at any point in time.

Assuming that he's going to rate is dangerous. Assuming that he's going to get the lead is even more dangerous. Assuming that he's going to be able to endure a very wide trip a la Big Brown and still be victorious is crazy in my opinion.

I find his ability to be effective from off the pace non-existent and think that everyone being dazzled by his fast 3rd quarter of the SA Derby is ignoring the fact that he walked on the lead prior to that point.

I'm a big boy and if I'm wrong it won't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last.

NT

[cakes44]

I think he'll run Gayego's Kentucky Derby.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I started this thread to ask people what they liked about this horse. I think he's shaping up as a Saarlandesque underlay and have serious reservations about him making an impact on this race at any point in time.

Assuming that he's going to rate is dangerous. Assuming that he's going to get the lead is even more dangerous. Assuming that he's going to be able to endure a very wide trip a la Big Brown and still be victorious is crazy in my opinion.

I find his ability to be effective from off the pace non-existent and think that everyone being dazzled by his fast 3rd quarter of the SA Derby is ignoring the fact that he walked on the lead prior to that point.

I'm a big boy and if I'm wrong it won't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last.

NT

I thought you only eat crow if you're wrong , is what I was referring to. You would be correct if he loses.

[tector]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I started this thread to ask people what they liked about this horse. I think he's shaping up as a Saarlandesque underlay and have serious reservations about him making an impact on this race at any point in time.

Assuming that he's going to rate is dangerous. Assuming that he's going to get the lead is even more dangerous. Assuming that he's going to be able to endure a very wide trip a la Big Brown and still be victorious is crazy in my opinion.

I find his ability to be effective from off the pace non-existent and think that everyone being dazzled by his fast 3rd quarter of the SA Derby is ignoring the fact that he walked on the lead prior to that point.

I'm a big boy and if I'm wrong it won't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last.

NT

The biggest point is that he likely is not going to be at the price necessary to make the leaps of faith required. If he is underlaid, then not betting him is the right decision, regardless of how the race actually turns out. You put the money in when you have equity offered to you, and you don't when it isn't.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I started this thread to ask people what they liked about this horse. I think he's shaping up as a Saarlandesque underlay and have serious reservations about him making an impact on this race at any point in time.

Assuming that he's going to rate is dangerous. Assuming that he's going to get the lead is even more dangerous. Assuming that he's going to be able to endure a very wide trip a la Big Brown and still be victorious is crazy in my opinion.

I find his ability to be effective from off the pace non-existent and think that everyone being dazzled by his fast 3rd quarter of the SA Derby is ignoring the fact that he walked on the lead prior to that point.

I'm a big boy and if I'm wrong it won't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last.

NT

I think this horse was actually quite impressive in the SA Derby. He stumbled out of the gate and, typically, when a speed horse does that it sometimes immediate either rushes or is rushed to the front. Neither happened here: SC took the lead simply because nothing else was fast enough or wanted it. As for the fast 3rd quarter, he did it in hand, wasn't even asked, while the others were all out to try to keep up, let alone cut into his lead. Which makes the reference to the slow early pace meaningless; if the pace was so slow early why couldn't the chasers close the gap on a horse that was, essentially, cruising?

To me, the Derby is just another race --- one of 20 or 30 that I'll play on Saturday. Going to play my usual 2 number exotic and go on with it. I'm using SC because I think he's the best horse in the race. Will he be value? It depends on how you look at it. If you don't think much of LaL and that one is the chalk, with SC being 2nd choice, then he's value. He's value because there's really nothing in the race. SC doesn't have to be a super horse to win. Talamo only needs to work out an efficient trip for him -- one which doesn't contribute to the race collapsing.

If I think that the race will collapse, then I need to play MULTIPLE numbers. This is really not the way to make money in the long run.

[ranger5830]

If you like Sidney's Candy , I would recommend watching the 2nd race at Santa Anita on 12/30/09, Sidney missed the break, tried to rate behind the leaders, made a 3-wide menacing move on the turn and flattened out. If he can't rate successfully at 3-5 in a 6 furlong race it's hard to imagine him doing it successfully at 1 1/4 miles from the extreme outside post. He just hasn't shown a willingness to pass horses.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

BTW, ateam - I think it might be time to resurrect this blog.

I just thought about it the other day but it's too late. Maybe after the Derby.