DERBY NEWS (4/26): Filly in, Rule out; Lucky, Noble's work best..

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

what is the deal with Dublin? I hear elsewhere he looks terrible. Maybe I missed an earlier point in a thread on this one???

I heard something about Dublin doing his best impression of a pinball machine, but I watched the April 25th work on DRF and didn't see it. Maybe I just need to have my vision checked. Did he really bolt twice and bounce off the outside rail?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I heard something about Dublin doing his best impression of a pinball machine, but I watched the April 25th work on DRF and didn't see it. Maybe I just need to have my vision checked. Did he really bolt twice and bounce off the outside rail?

He supposedly did that in a gallop on Saturday. In his workout early Sunday morning he appeared to be trying to get out going around the turn but then leveled off nicely in the stretch and finished up well. He was under little to no encouragement late.

NT

[Linny]

Endorsement has had his work pushed back twice. Any scoop there?

[JerseyJ]

These workouts, and workouts in general mean very little with regards to a horse's respective chances in a race. To me there are only three situations where workouts mean anything of value and in some cases even when it appears that these workouts mean something, they end up not meaning much anyway. The only times when workouts to mean mean anything and give any signs away are with Maidens, First-Time Starters, and Comebackers, are the only times when workouts mean much of anything with regards to actually using the workouts to potentially mean much of anything. At this point, you will not gain anything from Derby week workouts other than overreaction and overanalyzation.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

These workouts, and workouts in general mean very little with regards to a horse's respective chances in a race. To me there are only three situations where workouts mean anything of value and in some cases even when it appears that these workouts mean something, they end up not meaning much anyway. The only times when workouts to mean mean anything and give any signs away are with Maidens, First-Time Starters, and Comebackers, are the only times when workouts mean much of anything with regards to actually using the workouts to potentially mean much of anything. At this point, you will not gain anything from Derby week workouts other than overreaction and overanalyzation.

Strongly disagree. These reports often point me towards a ready horse and get me off of someone who looks good on paper. It's very subjective, but I trust Welsch and a handful of other guys who have an eye for this sort of thing.

[tector]

If you want to beat the chalk, and think there is too much speed in the race, and toss the horses with physical/distance questions, how many horses are there left to focus on?

Not a lot.

[tector]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who is to say who does and does not have distance problems?

You do--that is why it is called handicapping. You get info, you make a judgment. Anybody expecting Moses to come down from on high is in the wrong place.

[Dublin]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

My opinion is Sidneys Candy and Dublin can both get the distance and its not even an issue.

Please stop...

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Strongly disagree. These reports often point me towards a ready horse and get me off of someone who looks good on paper. It's very subjective, but I trust Welsch and a handful of other guys who have an eye for this sort of thing.

I agree. I've seen great works lead to stellar performances, Barbaro and Street Sense come to mind. I thought in both cases those works were the best of the weeks up to Derby day, and the performances were sensational.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

I agree. I've seen great works lead to stellar performances, Barbaro and Street Sense come to mind. I thought in both cases those works were the best of the weeks up to Derby day, and the performances were sensational.

Agree- Smarty Jones as well.

For me, it's not really a game changer unless I see a favorite working poorly- like what was the case on Saturday. For this year, Dublin is an easy toss based on what he's done in the mornings, and no one else really moves up or down now that Eskendereya is out.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree- Smarty Jones as well.

For me, it's not really a game changer unless I see a favorite working poorly- like what was the case on Saturday. For this year, Dublin is an easy toss based on what he's done in the mornings, and no one else really moves up or down now that Eskendereya is out.

I'm personally moving Devil May Care, Super Saver, and Paddy up, and moving Endorsement down unless he does something, along with the aforementioned Dublin. Not sold on Paddy on dirt-the work was on a wet track, but everyone was gushing over it and he will be a huge price.

[Antitrust32]

So Barbaro, Street Sense & Smarty Jones all had good works so that made them win? Werent they also favored or close to it and shown the most talent heading into the race?

Works are incredibly overrated. Unless a horse is a first out maiden they can be helpful.

Really, like Philski said, the only thing you can take from Derby works is if the horse looks sore or injured. Besides that all these horses are nice horses and all should look "dappled" and work like they normally do. Doesnt mean anything..

Except for redboarding after the race when a 50-1 shot win and people say "oh the horse has dapples and was working so great thats why he won"