A question for all of you planning to bet Sidney's Candy

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

He closed well because he was given a slow- easy lead. The question he must answer is how he will finish with a half in 46. Even if he rates a few lengths off, he is likely to cover the first half in 2 seconds faster than his previous wins.

thats the question for this horse and the favorite. both prep races were slow paces. this makes a good horse look like a hero. the derby will have the usual desparate types that throw down the gaunlet early. this sometimes discourages horses that have had their own way or causes bad trips for the faves. don't people understand that this is how the giacomos and mine that birds win this race? it changes a little from year to year and who knows what the track will be like. but many years the first tier is dead and the race falls apart at the turn. even big brown and barbaro backed off a little and they were not closers. borail has won two derbies this way in the last three years. i would not bet that horse(candy) at under 12-1. counting on these front runners to suddenly rate is usually a loser in this race, the odds have to be worth the risk. the war emblem type wins are few and far between. monarchos is the last horse to break the 2 minute mark and he came from downtown too. i know, i still have a bellamy road ticket i saved from 5 years ago. its worth diddley. he got to jog around and beat up lesser at a slow pace, a little dirt in the face and some tussle changes the game.