Class Handicapping

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Bigshots' race, per the non Trakus charts, is not nearly against the grain enough to warrant a look; certainly not at 5:2. Moreover, he's never run a race in his history where he's run against the grain (or done anything of note in terms of his setups). This is key: I want horses that run well against the setup not those that plug along when they don't get one and run only when things go their way. A chart history, while flawed (as all data presently is) goes a long way towards pointing them out. (Another way would be to watch all their races and keep copious notes.)

And, it's become evident to me that even the strongest bias is not immune to pace/setup. Even if there were a speed bias on 4/08, race 6 was not run as such.

We agree on this. While the pace was moderately fast for the level, it still shouldn't have fallen apart like it did.

However, I don't know how you can say this horse wouldn't be identified on a computer-based system as a stickout; he's exactly what you're trying to find, closing from well back on a day where very little passing occurred. I can understand not wanting to get involved at 5/2 but then you are right back to square one- needing extensive human analysis to finalize your wagering decisions. There is no substitute for hard work in this game- be it making quality speed figures, watching races, creating customized charts, or building a database of troubled trips. It is a lot closer to poker than blackjack in that artificial intelligence can only do part of the work instead of all of it.