8/29 (SAR): Travers, King's Bishop, Ballerina, Ballston, Vic. Ride

Travis Stone · #1 08-29-2009, 10:15 AM

This is a nuts conclusion. I bet Hold Me Back in the Derby, he put in a nifty middle move down the backstretch which was obviously a bit too early. He's never run a big race on dirt but if you consider his move in the Derby, I think he can handle it.

To me the Travers this year is: Can Quality Road handle the stretch-out off little races? And if not, who can jump-up? On Beyers, Summer Bird and Kensei fit the jump-up model. But I don't know if Kensei wants 10 furlongs with his A-game, and Summer Bird, though a useful horse, would have been fourth in the Belmont if it were at 10 furlongs. And in the Haskell, he beat-out Munnings who was obviously out of his comfort zone.

So, while both Summer Bird and Kensei could win, I can't get too excited about betting either of them at shorter prices. And Quality Road in my opinion is one of the most talented horses we've seen in a while, but he's really up against it today.

So, why not take a stab and have some fun? I'm not certainly not taking out a loan against my dog, but he'll be a price on a crazy, wet day.

Enjoy everyone!

Danzig · #2 08-29-2009, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

This is a nuts conclusion. I bet Hold Me Back in the Derby, he put in a nifty middle move down the backstretch which was obviously a bit too early. He's never run a big race on dirt but if you consider his move in the Derby, I think he can handle it.

To me the Travers this year is: Can Quality Road handle the stretch-out off little races? And if not, who can jump-up? On Beyers, Summer Bird and Kensei fit the jump-up model. But I don't know if Kensei wants 10 furlongs with his A-game, and Summer Bird, though a useful horse, would have been fourth in the Belmont if it were at 10 furlongs. And in the Haskell, he beat-out Munnings who was obviously out of his comfort zone.

So, while both Summer Bird and Kensei could win, I can't get too excited about betting either of them at shorter prices. And Quality Road in my opinion is one of the most talented horses we've seen in a while, but he's really up against it today.

So, why not take a stab and have some fun? I'm not certainly not taking out a loan against my dog, but he'll be a price on a crazy, wet day.

Enjoy everyone!

all good points. altho i would have to think if the belmont were 10f, summer bird would have been moved earlier to make up for two less panels.

at any rate, i would definitely put a few on our edge, as i think if a race could be won by a longer shot, this is one of them. question marks hovering over all the faves.

chip woolley has got to be kicking himself for declaring mine that bird-after his romp in the slop at churchill, this race probably would have been right up his alley.

Travis Stone · #3 08-29-2009, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

chip woolley has got to be kicking himself for declaring mine that bird-after his romp in the slop at churchill, this race probably would have been right up his alley.

He wanted to run, the decision to opt-out came from above.

DaTruth · #4 08-29-2009, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

This is a nuts conclusion. I bet Hold Me Back in the Derby, he put in a nifty middle move down the backstretch which was obviously a bit too early. He's never run a big race on dirt but if you consider his move in the Derby, I think he can handle it.

To me the Travers this year is: Can Quality Road handle the stretch-out off little races? And if not, who can jump-up? On Beyers, Summer Bird and Kensei fit the jump-up model. But I don't know if Kensei wants 10 furlongs with his A-game, and Summer Bird, though a useful horse, would have been fourth in the Belmont if it were at 10 furlongs. And in the Haskell, he beat-out Munnings who was obviously out of his comfort zone.

So, while both Summer Bird and Kensei could win, I can't get too excited about betting either of them at shorter prices. And Quality Road in my opinion is one of the most talented horses we've seen in a while, but he's really up against it today.

So, why not take a stab and have some fun? I'm not certainly not taking out a loan against my dog, but he'll be a price on a crazy, wet day.

Enjoy everyone!

Summer Bird will win the Travers and then lose to a La-bred in the Super Derby.

Travis Stone · #5 08-29-2009, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Summer Bird will win the Travers and then lose to a La-bred in the Super Derby.

What La-bred?!

King Glorious · #6 08-29-2009, 12:20 PM

Victory Ride:
1. Bold Union
2. Sky Haven
3. Sara Louise
4. Selva

Ballston Spa:
1. Rutherienne
2. Teamgeist
3. Cocoa Beach
4. My Princess Jess

Ballerina:
1. Indian Blessing
2. Informed Decision
3. Tar Heel Mom
4. PSU Grad

King's Bishop:
1. Big Drama
2. Capt Candyman Can
3. Munnings
4. Vineyard Haven

Travers:
1. Kensei
2. Charitable Man
3. Quality Road
4. Our Edge

Mike · #7 08-29-2009, 03:20 PM

Going with Closeout, hoping he handles the wet grass;
Capt. Candyman, in the slop, of course

Straight tri Quality Road-Charitable Man-Summer Bird

Cannon Shell · #8 08-29-2009, 04:09 PM

US turf horses suck

King Glorious · #9 08-29-2009, 04:46 PM

Well, Music Note domintated. Didn't expect to see her on the lead a half mile into the race and when I thought IB was going to run by her, she had other ideas and won off with extreme ease. Did not see that one coming. Congrats to Godolphin.

eajinabi · #10 08-29-2009, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

US turf horses suck

For real. That Euro had no workouts on US Soil and had only 1 maiden win to his credit. He was dead last coming off the turn on Soft Ground with a pace slower than grandma.

DaTruth · #11 08-29-2009, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What La-bred?!

Maybe Milwaukee Miracle, although the distance might be a little short for him.

CSC · #12 08-29-2009, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

This is a nuts conclusion. I bet Hold Me Back in the Derby, he put in a nifty middle move down the backstretch which was obviously a bit too early. He's never run a big race on dirt but if you consider his move in the Derby, I think he can handle it.

To me the Travers this year is: Can Quality Road handle the stretch-out off little races? And if not, who can jump-up? On Beyers, Summer Bird and Kensei fit the jump-up model. But I don't know if Kensei wants 10 furlongs with his A-game, and Summer Bird, though a useful horse, would have been fourth in the Belmont if it were at 10 furlongs. And in the Haskell, he beat-out Munnings who was obviously out of his comfort zone.

So, while both Summer Bird and Kensei could win, I can't get too excited about betting either of them at shorter prices. And Quality Road in my opinion is one of the most talented horses we've seen in a while, but he's really up against it today.

So, why not take a stab and have some fun? I'm not certainly not taking out a loan against my dog, but he'll be a price on a crazy, wet day.

Enjoy everyone!

Good call Travis on the 2nd place finisher, hope u nailed the exacta.

King Glorious · #13 08-29-2009, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Good call Travis on the 2nd place finisher, hope u nailed the exacta.

Don't you have to have a winner and second place finisher to have the exacta?

Travis Stone · #14 08-29-2009, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Don't you have to have a winner and second place finisher to have the exacta?

I think so, but let me check back with you.

CSC · #15 08-29-2009, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Don't you have to have a winner and second place finisher to have the exacta?

No, I just bet SB to win. Not to get too personal but it was a good amount of change.

pdrift1 · #16 08-29-2009, 06:12 PM

trying not to get ahead of myself. sloppy track today . RA still has to win the woodward which anything can happen but her getting beaten by this group of older seems impossible as great as she is. you have to just think the BC needs a boot in azz that the BCC is not being run on dirt to solidify RA as one of the greatest

pdrift1 · #17 08-29-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

No, I just bet SB to win. Not to get too personal but it was a good amount of change.

congrats on the hit. i liked his chances also. i guess all those reports jeff seigel commented on this mourning on how a lot of people at saratoga were saying SB was looking horrible are scratching thier heads.

Cannon Shell · #18 08-29-2009, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdrift1

congrats on the hit. i liked his chances also. i guess all those reports jeff seigel commented on this mourning on how a lot of people at saratoga were saying SB was looking horrible are scratching thier heads.

Looked awful didn't he?

pdrift1 · #19 08-29-2009, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Looked awful didn't he?

yeah i think he was thinking about changing his mind i think after all he heard

King Glorious · #20 08-29-2009, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdrift1

congrats on the hit. i liked his chances also. i guess all those reports jeff seigel commented on this mourning on how a lot of people at saratoga were saying SB was looking horrible are scratching thier heads.

Anyone who listens to that stuff deserves to lose their money. Watchmaker was saying the same thing, that he was concerned about how well he's trained for this. These guys are just giving their opinions and I've always believed that people who rely on the opinions of others and can't trust their own opinions, especially if they've been at it awhile, deserve to lose.