Before we leave for Baltimore, another look at derby trips...

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Perhaps you are discounting (or missing?) Join in the Dance's mugging of MTB and Papa Clem at the start.

Yea, I'm discounting that. Papa Clem easily burst through that contact and moved up behind Regal Ransom and Join In the Dance. He didn't catch any negative effects and got exactly where he wanted to be.

MTB - some would say that had MTB not had the contact early from JITD, Borel may have had him closer - so if you believe that to be true, the contact definitely helped MTB. It certainly didn't appear to injure him, and if Borel's plan was to take back as deep as he did, it didn't hamper that plan in any real way.

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe you are discounting Musket Man's (and to a lesser extent, POTN's) run on the worst part of the track?

There could be something to this depending on how different you think different parts of the track may have been playing. I happen to think a lot of the rail bias stuff has been much overblown.

There may have been a significant difference between the rail and outer paths, but a lot of the debate to champion that bias has not been logical. The more vocal suggestions of the bias include fallacies such as Desormeaux's middle move shooting up the rail on Hold Me Back was somehow evidence of an inside bias, or that Borel's Deep Closing Rail Run with Mine That Bird was somehow evidence of an inside bias.

I think with Musket Man or POTN if you want to credit them a little vs MTB it might make a little sense(although the purpose is probably futile because MTB was likely a 1-hit "perfect storm"), but comparing say Musket Man to Papa Clem isn't going to be that fruitful. If you think one should get a little more credit by all means...

Originally Posted by philcski

Baby boi's chart doesn't though. He had an extremely clean trip, apparently.

I have not looked at the chart yet, only the headon blimp and pan replays , babe

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Yea, I'm discounting that. Papa Clem easily burst through that contact and moved up behind Regal Ransom and Join In the Dance. He didn't catch any negative effects and got exactly where he wanted to be.

MTB - some would say that had MTB not had the contact early from JITD, Borel may have had him closer - so if you believe that to be true, the contact definitely helped MTB. It certainly didn't appear to injure him, and if Borel's plan was to take back as deep as he did, it didn't hamper that plan in any real way.



There could be something to this depending on how different you think different parts of the track may have been playing. I happen to think a lot of the rail bias stuff has been much overblown.

There may have been a significant difference between the rail and outer paths, but a lot of the debate to champion that bias has not been logical. The more vocal suggestions of the bias include fallacies such as Desormeaux's middle move shooting up the rail on Hold Me Back was somehow evidence of an inside bias, or that Borel's Deep Closing Rail Run with Mine That Bird was somehow evidence of an inside bias.

I think with Musket Man or POTN if you want to credit them a little vs MTB it might make a little sense(although the purpose is probably futile because MTB was likely a 1-hit "perfect storm"), but comparing say Musket Man to Papa Clem isn't going to be that fruitful. If you think one should get a little more credit by all means...



I have not looked at the chart yet, only the headon blimp and pan replays , babe

Papa Clem- disagree. He took a strong whack and had to rush up to get his normal position. It wasn't a killer- in fact Smarty Jones bullrushed through a similar occurance in the '04 Derby to gain his normal spot- but he ain't Smarty Jones and needed everything to go perfectly. if he doesn't get slammed, maybe he has an additional ounce of energy at the finish and gets up for 2nd.

MTB- agree. He was actually probably aided by the bump. His instructions were to be closer. But you have to at least acknowledge that he got hit if you want to discuss the nuances of the trips.

As for the rail discussion, I'm using the ancillary evidence from other races to back up my claim- the Hold Me Back argument holds no weight IMO.

Trip handicapping this race...
Vestiges of the mud wrestling bar
excursions still remain in the patient's
dreams.

-Sigmoid Froid

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Papa Clem- disagree. He took a strong whack and had to rush up to get his normal position. It wasn't a killer- in fact Smarty Jones bullrushed through a similar occurance in the '04 Derby to gain his normal spot- but he ain't Smarty Jones and needed everything to go perfectly. if he doesn't get slammed, maybe he has an additional ounce of energy at the finish and gets up for 2nd.

That is a possibility.

[Bobby Fischer]

i have a secret admirer going around voting stars on any posts I happen to start. How cute.

staying on topic...
Desperately Seeking Susan:
Still seeking a complete Overhead Blimp Replay for 2009, It seems unlike last year with Big Brown, NBC has only released a condensed Overhead section from Mine That Bird's winning move, and not the start and early portions of the race.
There isn't really anything you should miss if you go over the various angles enough times, but it is a fun useful technology that may as well be available.

Just now getting my hands on better quality video, I wish I had someone make a HD Blueray or DVD of the actual coverage. It is a lot nicer than what the internet replay sites provide.
Youtube now has more and more HD videos, and several sites like http://keepvid.com allow for easy saving to your hard drive.

a nice HD vid of the Derby on youtube = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yM7T5uF_Fs&hd=1