5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

Handicappy · #1 04-30-2009, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomad

Only a bad trip/traffic problems would prevent I Want Revenge from winning. Hold me Back for the place spot
I would certainly worry about WestSide Bernie, peaking at the right time.

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

miraja2 · #2 04-30-2009, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

GBBob · #3 04-30-2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

but..but...the Sheeeeets say...

pweizer · #4 04-30-2009, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

IWR also has twice lost to POTN who incidently happens to have a four race win streak coming in. The dirt is the wildcard. We know IWR loves it. We can't say for sure that POTN will. However, from all accounts he has trained wonderfully over it. I see no reason that he won't continue his winning ways saturday.

Paul

kgar311 · #5 04-30-2009, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

IWR also has twice lost to POTN who incidently happens to have a four race win streak coming in. The dirt is the wildcard. We know IWR loves it. We can't say for sure that POTN will. However, from all accounts he has trained wonderfully over it. I see no reason that he won't continue his winning ways saturday.

Paul

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

tjfla · #6 04-30-2009, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

pweizer · #7 04-30-2009, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

The Indomitable DrugS · #8 04-30-2009, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well.

His sire is 3-for-117 with 1st time turfers - and his dam couldn't outrun a goat on turf when she raced here - and turf and synthetic are pretty much the same thing -- so ... while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks - I would have considered IWR the best pedigree projection to improve on dirt of the synthetic horses but he would only have been my longshot flyer for underneath in a race where I would have had knocks on everything.

philcski · #9 04-30-2009, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

I have a big problem with POTN, and it has nothing to do with synthetics versus dirt.

He's too slow.

miraja2 · #10 05-01-2009, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

Well, he beat West Side Bernie who I think is a pretty good colt. West Side Bernie ran pretty good races in both the Holy Bull and the Wood, and if he didn't have the unfortunate combination of the #1 post and Stewart Elliot on his back, I think he would be a serious contender here to hit the board. Actually, if he is somehow able to get a good trip despite those two very daunting obstacles, I could still see him getting a share.
Beating WSB as easily as he did in the Wood, despite a horrible trip, is one of the things that most impresses me about IWR.

The Indomitable DrugS · #11 05-01-2009, 12:18 PM

The "who did he beat?" stuff is my favorite.

Terrain beat Pioneerof The Nile in there two synhtetic track meetings - one at Keeneland in the Futurity and the other in the BC Juvenile.

pweizer · #12 05-01-2009, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The "who did he beat?" stuff is my favorite.

Terrain beat Pioneerof The Nile in there two synhtetic track meetings - one at Keeneland in the Futurity and the other in the BC Juvenile.

But Terrain didn't win either of these races so that is not excatly a fair comparison.

Paul

Sightseek · #13 05-01-2009, 12:23 PM

They just showed the odds on Twinspires, Fresian Fire is 4-1

The Indomitable DrugS · #14 05-01-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

But Terrain didn't win either of these races so that is not excatly a fair comparison.

Paul

It's a fair comparison because he has the same closing style - and if anything Terrain had the tougher trip in both races.

It's the same if two speed horses hooked up - and one beat the other both times.

The difference was Bill Mott trained Pioneerof The Nile as a 2yo - and Mott is a terrible trainer of 2yo's.

POTN was a laughing stock with Mott.

Dunbar · #15 05-01-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

Yes, yes, yes. Very well said.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philski

I have a big problem with POTN, and it has nothing to do with synthetics versus dirt.

He's too slow.

Exactly.

--Dunbar

tjfla · #16 05-01-2009, 11:36 PM

Other than the Sam Davis has General Quarters done anything on the dirt??

moses · #17 05-01-2009, 11:55 PM

What does everyone make of the fact that Garrett Gomez has decided to ride POTN over Dunkirk? That concerns me a bit, although I like Dunkirk.

Everyone is down on Friesan Fire on here, it seems, but I've got to say I like the horse. The 7 week lay-off scares me a bit, but I think I'm going to put FF on top here.

Longshots that I'll throw in the exotics -- Musket Man and Mr. Hot Stuff.