Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That's totally different than my definition.

I guess the term means different things to different people.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

I agree with Steve. The "chatter" horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I expect Desert Party and Dunkirk to be the two most likely to impress on looks.

I Want Revenge's start in the Wood will probably be shown on tv a whole bunch of times.

I guess Desert Party would be my wiseguy horse pick on both definitions because IWR and Dunkirk have the naked form to take a lot of money.

DP's 2yo figures are very slow - and his defeat at the hands of Regal Ransom was better than looked.

And being a $2 million+ two year old - it's a cinch he both looks great and works out well. So he'll wow the people there.

His sire has already sired a Derby winner. His dam sire was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

The "chatter" horse.

Same way I see the term.


there is also the win pool wise guy horse - When you see the actual odds, and a horse who was supposed to be a 4th choice is second choice in the betting etc...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Maybe Dollar Bill wasn't a wiseguy horse in that case ... although I guess it's possible he could have looked good the week of the race and everything like that.

The stretch trouble he had in his 4th place finish behind Fifty Stars was shown over and over on tv. And the drubbing he took in the Blue Grass by Millenium Wind was rightly disregarded by all the commentators because of the track playing against him.

He would seem like the all-time classic example by my definition.

Being the 2nd choice - and a shorter price than horses like Congaree, Monarchos, Balto Star etc etc off of a 4th to Fifty Stars and a distant 3rd to Millennium Wind - and after taking a total beating in the BC Juvenile over that track the prior year.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Maybe Dollar Bill wasn't a wiseguy horse in that case ... although I guess it's possible he could have looked good the week of the race and everything like that.

The stretch trouble he had in his 4th place finish behind Fifty Stars was shown over and over on tv. And the drubbing he took in the Blue Grass by Millenium Wind was rightly disregarded by all the commentators because of the track playing against him.

He would seem like the all-time classic example by my definition.

Being the 2nd choice - and a shorter price than horses like Congaree, Monarchos, Balto Star etc etc off of a 4th to Fifty Stars and a distant 3rd to Millennium Wind - and after taking a total beating in the BC Juvenile over that track the prior year.

He is the all-time classic example to me as well. Usually the chatter starts with workouts or looks but in his case it was trips discussion (as you said, they showed it over and over on tv). I have no idea what he looked like that week- it was really before live blogging, twitter coverage, whatever gave you an update on the color and consistency of each horses' dumps.

Basically my definition is "what are his odds relative to the actual ability he's shown" and a wiseguy horse would be one that gets bet down from say 25-1 to at or under 10-1.