Is Capt. Candyman's Derby dream over?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Beethoven's signature win came in a race where he could barely run down a pacesetter who had gone very fast early while he had an absolutely perfect trip. He's going to have to step his game up in a big way.

NT

Should I start listing all the races where I have one of two in an exacta? That's not a daily occurrence.
I loaded up on CCM last out, btw.

Must we discuss trips again?

If you're referring to the Kentucky Jockey Club, you might want to review what (actually) happened in that race. BTW, didn't he hold off your horse, CCM, in that one? You know, the last mover.

How about the Holy Bull; did he get a perfect trip there as well?

Not saying this horse is special but he's certainly going to run better AROUND 2 TURNS, on a FAIR track, than anything coming out of the FOY. Last I looked, you need some middle moves to completely collapse a race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Should I start listing all the races where I have one of two in an exacta? That's not a daily occurrence.
I loaded up on CCM last out, btw.

Must we discuss trips again?

If you're referring to the Kentucky Jockey Club, you might want to review what (actually) happened in that race. BTW, didn't he hold off your horse, CCM, in that one? You know, the last mover.

How about the Holy Bull; did he get a perfect trip there as well?

Not saying this horse is special but he's certainly going to run better AROUND 2 TURNS, on a FAIR track, than anything coming out of the FOY. Last I looked, you need some middle moves to completely collapse a race.

TFM-

How was CCM the last mover in the KJC? Beethoven cruised right up to him at the quarter pole and I suppose the very slight (and largely inconsequential) bump between the two of them affected his stride. From there in you had a horse who just sat back behind the hot pace and never left the inside slugging it out with a horse who had done all of the running after going wide around the first turn to try to get to the lead. The fact that CCM even battled with him at all was huge.

I didn't say anything about Beethoven getting a perfect trip in the Holy Bull. I think the Holy Bull was a pretty horrendous horse race all in all, and I'm not interested in any horse who raced in it. Sure, he was outside on a track that favored speed, but wouldn't that make you want West Side Bernie if you had to have anyone?

I'm also very realistic about Capt. Candyman Can. I've liked the horse since Saratoga and made a few bucks on him in the Hutcheson. He is going to be a nice sprinter, that's it in my opinion.

You're certainly right that Beethoven is better at two turns. He'll definitely get 10 furlongs as well, it's just going to take him way too long.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Nick

I'm multitasking and wasn't paying attention (and confused my colors).

While CCM was wide the 1st turn, he had it all his own way and Beethoven had to go and get him. If the pace were as 'hot' as you seem to think, and CCM was at a disadvantage, then why doesn't Beethoven, running on the rail throughout, drop him in the stretch? Maybe he's not much. But why doesn't Giant Oak blow by both of them? Now, I happen to think that Giant Oak is a decent horse and given the setup you describe, he's supposed to pass them. Is he a plodding plug as well?

If CCM got all the worst of it and still held very, very well, what happened to him yesterday? Is the PERFECT TRIP Hutchenson the best he has to offer after that (supposed) MONSTER effort in the KJC?

I don't think the FOY set up for a closer yesterday; fast pace notwithstanding.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Nick

I'm multitasking and wasn't paying attention (and confused my colors).

While CCM was wide the 1st turn, he had it all his own way and Beethoven had to go and get him. If the pace were as 'hot' as you seem to think, and CCM was at a disadvantage, then why doesn't Beethoven, running on the rail throughout, drop him in the stretch? Maybe he's not much. But why doesn't Giant Oak blow by both of them? Now, I happen to think that Giant Oak is a decent horse and given the setup you describe, he's supposed to pass them. Is he a plodding plug as well?

If CCM got all the worst of it and still held very, very well, what happened to him yesterday? Is the PERFECT TRIP Hutchenson the best he has to offer after that (supposed) MONSTER effort in the KJC?

I don't think the FOY set up for a closer yesterday; fast pace notwithstanding.

CCM was bad yesterday, no doubt. It just was not a good effort at all. Perhaps he only wants seven furlongs? I'm not sure but at this time there's no way he's a real two-turn horse.

I think Giant Oak should have absolutely swallowed both CCM and Beethoven up in the KJC. I think Giant Oak is not much at all and there has been much made about his trip in the Risen Star. He was in tight for some time and your man Prado certainly didn't do him any favors, but I think he and the rest of the NOLA crowd will be exposed by the new and improved Patena in the La Derby. I do think Giant Oak has a bright future on the weeds.

NT

[the_fat_man]

I think Giant Oak had an impossible trip last out: both in terms of the ride and the setup. He deserves another chance.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think Giant Oak had an impossible trip last out: both in terms of the ride and the setup. He deserves another chance.

Absolutely. The ride was atrocious and I'm sure you felt even more strongly about it then I did since it was your favorite jockey aboard.

I still like Patena against Giant Oak, Friesan Fire and all the rest in the La Derby.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

I'm not sold that Patena will be finishing well if he goes to the Derby and I think he even quits in a race like the Bluegrass.
It's hard to tell when you have a horse go to Dutrow, they can always improve.