Gotham Stakes

blackthroatedwind · #1 02-23-2009, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? I think this year's Fountain of Youth is the best Derby prep being run in years, and the Gotham looks very strong as well. I'm not sure what the hell has to happen for people to stop that yearly "this crop sucks!" call. Last year's colt crop was terrible, but people were saying the crop was terrible around this time in '07 too. I think this has the makings of a very good crop of three-year-olds. What's the knock? I don't get it. We have brilliance (Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, True Quality, Mr. Fantasy, Dunkirk), consistency (Haynesfield, Old Fashioned, Friesan Fire) and a bunch of horses that could be anything (pretty much everyone in the FOY, Santana Six, Imperial Council, etc.), not to mention the Dubai horses if they ever get over here.

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I do agree, though, that right now there are way more promising 3YOs than last year. It isn't even close. Even if some of these turn out to be distance challenged there is definitely some prospective talent out there.

None of them, however, are named Pioneer of the Nile.

ateamstupid · #2 02-23-2009, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO.

Quality Road, rather.

Linny · #3 02-23-2009, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I think he meant Quality Road.

ateamstupid · #4 02-23-2009, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

I think he meant Quality Road.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...4&postcount=21

Handicappy · #5 02-25-2009, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I do agree, though, that right now there are way more promising 3YOs than last year. It isn't even close. Even if some of these turn out to be distance challenged there is definitely some prospective talent out there.

None of them, however, are named Pioneer of the Nile.

Totally agree. Mr. Fantasy hasn't proven much yet. He cantered through two state bred races but we won't know brillance until he gets confronted and goes eye to eye with someone. He'll get the distance, we just don't know what kind of heart he has yet. But this is a fun group that will get more interesting as we go forward.

ateamstupid · #6 02-25-2009, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Totally agree. Mr. Fantasy hasn't proven much yet. He cantered through two state bred races but we won't know brillance until he gets confronted and goes eye to eye with someone. He'll get the distance, we just don't know what kind of heart he has yet. But this is a fun group that will get more interesting as we go forward.

That's what brilliance is, being very fast without ever being truly tested. Mr. Fantasy may or may not fit that description, but suggesting that he has to get "looked in the eye" to be brilliant makes no sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Look at Big Brown last year. His breeding never indicated he would be able to go the distance he went.

Not true at all.

Handicappy · #7 02-26-2009, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That's what brilliance is, being very fast without ever being truly tested. Mr. Fantasy may or may not fit that description, but suggesting that he has to get "looked in the eye" to be brilliant makes no sense.

Not true at all.

Maybe we have two very different notions of brilliance for a race horse. I think brilliance in a horse is breeding, maturity and performance. Sometimes a brilliant horse can out perform his/her breeding. Which I contend Big B did last year. But without maturity and the experience gained from being battle tested, a horses' capacity for brilliance can be quite limited. He has had a couple brilliant performances given the ease in which he has accomplished his two wins but to be a brilliant horse is another thing.
Now understand, I would like nothing better than to just agree with you. I have been so impressed with the horse since he's been training at Belmont. Kiaran and his assistant here at Belmont are very high on him. But I won't put him into the brilliant category until I can see how he performs against the kind of company he will face in the Gotham. He's got to contend with other speed in the race and will battle with some closers in the stretch.
Mig came off him last time and said that he definately didn't need the lead which I think will be critical for him as he moves forward. Whether he does or not we will eventually see. He is extremely mature for a horse with so little experience.
I better stop or I'll convince myself that your are right. I have to control my being a fan of the horse to handicap and bet his races.

blackthroatedwind · #8 02-26-2009, 06:20 PM

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

the_fat_man · #9 02-26-2009, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

So, if the trainer gets Taqarub out there for a gate work in the morning with 3 of the fastest horses in his barn. And, has an exercise rider that can actually hold him. And Taqarub RATES. And you're out there watching it, you wouldn't believe it?

How about if Garcia were to shoot up some 'roids before the ride?

Danzig · #10 02-26-2009, 06:39 PM

it's not whether the rider can hold him, it's whether the horse is willing to do as he's told. no rider will fight a horse and win the battle-either the horse will relax, or he'll fight himself into exhaustion-which won't win him the race.

blackthroatedwind · #11 02-26-2009, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So, if the trainer gets Taqarub out there for a gate work in the morning with 3 of the fastest horses in his barn. And, has an exercise rider that can actually hold him. And Taqarub RATES. And you're out there watching it, you wouldn't believe it?

How about if Garcia were to shoot up some 'roids before the ride?

Rating in workouts and rating in races are completely different scenerios. I have had VERY good exercise riders tell me their speedballs rated very comfortably in the morning......and then watched them fail miserably in the afternoon.

Handicappy · #12 03-05-2009, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

Well you had that one nailed regarding Taqarub.