Gotham Stakes

Kasept · #1 02-23-2009, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

sure the FOY is stacked, but aren't some trainers going to be looking for TWO TURN races to prep with? at least 3 of the 5 horses the OP listed were based at GP

They seem to care less and less. A 8f one turn March 1 to a 9f start in early April to 10f in early May... The late-developing Curlin/Big Brown style 'career' arc may be the 'new' Derby approach.

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve it seems to be a horrible year for colts... Stacked implies quality not quanity

You're 100% right Freddy..

ateamstupid · #2 02-23-2009, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

You're 100% right Freddy..

Really? I think this year's Fountain of Youth is the best Derby prep being run in years, and the Gotham looks very strong as well. I'm not sure what the hell has to happen for people to stop that yearly "this crop sucks!" call. Last year's colt crop was terrible, but people were saying the crop was terrible around this time in '07 too. I think this has the makings of a very good crop of three-year-olds. What's the knock? I don't get it. We have brilliance (Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, Quality Road, Mr. Fantasy, Dunkirk), consistency (Haynesfield, Old Fashioned, Friesan Fire) and a bunch of horses that could be anything (pretty much everyone in the FOY, Santana Six, Imperial Council, etc.), not to mention the Dubai horses if they ever get over here.

Danzig · #3 02-23-2009, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? I think this year's Fountain of Youth is the best Derby prep being run in years, and the Gotham looks very strong as well. Then we've got Old Fashioned, Friesan Fire and a few decent west coast horses as well. I'm not sure what the hell has to happen for people to stop that yearly "this crop sucks!" call. Last year's colt crop was terrible, but people were saying the crop was terrible around this time in '07 too. I think has the makings of a very good crop of three-year-olds. What's the knock? I don't get it.

no more racing.
it's still february. way too soon to say for sure what kind of crop we're looking at. last years didn't turn out well, but at this point last year, everyone was talking up pyro-but for a while there, he did look good! we didn't think it was that bad of a group, but as things turned out, it really wasn't that good.

as for the FOY and whether it's good, bad or otherwise-each race will not be a harbinger of things to come in may. when's the last time any fairgrounds horse really turned out a force in ky? doesn't mean those races aren't good races on their own merits, or that people won't run a horse who will do well at these shorter distances. not every horse is a two turn horse, so of course some will point to the foy-regardless of plans from there.

blackthroatedwind · #4 02-23-2009, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? I think this year's Fountain of Youth is the best Derby prep being run in years, and the Gotham looks very strong as well. I'm not sure what the hell has to happen for people to stop that yearly "this crop sucks!" call. Last year's colt crop was terrible, but people were saying the crop was terrible around this time in '07 too. I think this has the makings of a very good crop of three-year-olds. What's the knock? I don't get it. We have brilliance (Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, True Quality, Mr. Fantasy, Dunkirk), consistency (Haynesfield, Old Fashioned, Friesan Fire) and a bunch of horses that could be anything (pretty much everyone in the FOY, Santana Six, Imperial Council, etc.), not to mention the Dubai horses if they ever get over here.

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I do agree, though, that right now there are way more promising 3YOs than last year. It isn't even close. Even if some of these turn out to be distance challenged there is definitely some prospective talent out there.

None of them, however, are named Pioneer of the Nile.

ateamstupid · #5 02-23-2009, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO.

Quality Road, rather.

Linny · #6 02-23-2009, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I think he meant Quality Road.

ateamstupid · #7 02-23-2009, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

I think he meant Quality Road.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...4&postcount=21

Handicappy · #8 02-25-2009, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I do agree, though, that right now there are way more promising 3YOs than last year. It isn't even close. Even if some of these turn out to be distance challenged there is definitely some prospective talent out there.

None of them, however, are named Pioneer of the Nile.

Totally agree. Mr. Fantasy hasn't proven much yet. He cantered through two state bred races but we won't know brillance until he gets confronted and goes eye to eye with someone. He'll get the distance, we just don't know what kind of heart he has yet. But this is a fun group that will get more interesting as we go forward.

ateamstupid · #9 02-25-2009, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Totally agree. Mr. Fantasy hasn't proven much yet. He cantered through two state bred races but we won't know brillance until he gets confronted and goes eye to eye with someone. He'll get the distance, we just don't know what kind of heart he has yet. But this is a fun group that will get more interesting as we go forward.

That's what brilliance is, being very fast without ever being truly tested. Mr. Fantasy may or may not fit that description, but suggesting that he has to get "looked in the eye" to be brilliant makes no sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Look at Big Brown last year. His breeding never indicated he would be able to go the distance he went.

Not true at all.

Handicappy · #10 02-26-2009, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That's what brilliance is, being very fast without ever being truly tested. Mr. Fantasy may or may not fit that description, but suggesting that he has to get "looked in the eye" to be brilliant makes no sense.

Not true at all.

Maybe we have two very different notions of brilliance for a race horse. I think brilliance in a horse is breeding, maturity and performance. Sometimes a brilliant horse can out perform his/her breeding. Which I contend Big B did last year. But without maturity and the experience gained from being battle tested, a horses' capacity for brilliance can be quite limited. He has had a couple brilliant performances given the ease in which he has accomplished his two wins but to be a brilliant horse is another thing.
Now understand, I would like nothing better than to just agree with you. I have been so impressed with the horse since he's been training at Belmont. Kiaran and his assistant here at Belmont are very high on him. But I won't put him into the brilliant category until I can see how he performs against the kind of company he will face in the Gotham. He's got to contend with other speed in the race and will battle with some closers in the stretch.
Mig came off him last time and said that he definately didn't need the lead which I think will be critical for him as he moves forward. Whether he does or not we will eventually see. He is extremely mature for a horse with so little experience.
I better stop or I'll convince myself that your are right. I have to control my being a fan of the horse to handicap and bet his races.

blackthroatedwind · #11 02-26-2009, 06:20 PM

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

SniperSB23 · #12 02-23-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? I think this year's Fountain of Youth is the best Derby prep being run in years, and the Gotham looks very strong as well. I'm not sure what the hell has to happen for people to stop that yearly "this crop sucks!" call. Last year's colt crop was terrible, but people were saying the crop was terrible around this time in '07 too. I think this has the makings of a very good crop of three-year-olds. What's the knock? I don't get it. We have brilliance (Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, True Quality, Mr. Fantasy, Dunkirk), consistency (Haynesfield, Old Fashioned, Friesan Fire) and a bunch of horses that could be anything (pretty much everyone in the FOY, Santana Six, Imperial Council, etc.), not to mention the Dubai horses if they ever get over here.

I think it is the synthetics in California causing it. On the east coast there still seems to be a normal level of promising horses. But usually they are supplemented by a group of promising horses in the California. Now that it is all synthetics out there it is tough to get excited about any of them. So that really reduces the number of horses you can take seriously.

Danzig · #13 02-23-2009, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think it is the synthetics in California causing it. On the east coast there still seems to be a normal level of promising horses. But usually they are supplemented by a group of promising horses in the California. Now that it is all synthetics out there it is tough to get excited about any of them. So that really reduces the number of horses you can take seriously.

well, i think you can find cali racing exciting. the questions come in when those horses leave the west coast. some who ran poorly there will step up on dirt, and those who looked sooooo good out there, won't look good on the real stuff. i certainly found watching zenyatta run to be exciting. as for using one of them on derby day-good luck's all i can say.

ateamstupid · #14 02-23-2009, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think it is the synthetics in California causing it. On the east coast there still seems to be a normal level of promising horses. But usually they are supplemented by a group of promising horses in the California. Now that it is all synthetics out there it is tough to get excited about any of them. So that really reduces the number of horses you can take seriously.

I disagree. I didn't name any of the California horses in my post. I think the level of talented horses on the east coast is way above "normal."

SniperSB23 · #15 02-23-2009, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I disagree. I didn't name any of the California horses in my post. I think the level of talented horses on the east coast is way above "normal."

Way above last year for sure. Way above normal I'm not so sure I can agree with. Really a lot depends on what happens with This One's For Phil and Notonthesamepage in the FOY. If at least one of them runs huge then things get very interesting. If both just look like sprinters who freaked then the remaining horses leave you with a pretty typical crop (excluding last years garbage).

lemoncrush · #16 02-23-2009, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Way above last year for sure. Way above normal I'm not so sure I can agree with. Really a lot depends on what happens with This One's For Phil and Notonthesamepage in the FOY. If at least one of them runs huge then things get very interesting. If both just look like sprinters who freaked then the remaining horses leave you with a pretty typical crop (excluding last years garbage).

Isn't there always flashy sprinters this time of year that are maurading as derby contenders (Henny Hughes, Keyed Entry, J Be K, etc..)?
With the FOL being a one-turn mile this year, I'm not sure if we'll learn anything about those two until later on.

SniperSB23 · #17 02-23-2009, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Isn't there always flashy sprinters this time of year that are maurading as derby contenders (Henny Hughes, Keyed Entry, J Be K, etc..)?
With the FOL being a one-turn mile this year, I'm not sure if we'll learn anything about those two until later on.

Never running Beyers like those two threw up.

miraja2 · #18 02-23-2009, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Isn't there always flashy sprinters this time of year that are maurading as derby contenders (Henny Hughes, Keyed Entry, J Be K, etc..)?
With the FOL being a one-turn mile this year, I'm not sure if we'll learn anything about those two until later on.

People always want to start ranking the crop in February....which is hard to do.
However, if I had to judge it right now I would say that it looks like a pretty decent crop....maybe somewhere around average for the past ten years or so. Now, if you take an average (or maybe even slightly above-average) crop and compare them to last year's collection of three-legged donkeys, these guys look like a crop full of Holy Bulls.