Early Weekend Beyers

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The reason Pioneer of the Nile is the most absurd possible Derby horse is that he can't run on the dirt. He is a mediocre turf horse, running on a turf course, that his competition can't particularly handle. My God, Bittel Road finished less than two lengths behind him. Take a step back and look at what is going on here.

And don't give me that " how do we know he can't run on the dirt " crap. We know.....because they know.

The bottom line is that this surface has particularly destroyed the TC prep season. One, it has elevated mediocre turf horses and fooled some people into thinking they are talented dirt horses, two, it has hampered dirt horses from actually getting to showcase their true talents, and three it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible. But, one thing it hasn't done, is made Pioneer of the Nile a true TC contender.

very true!
if anything, california has removed themselves from triple crown contention. if you have a legit contender, you have no alternative except to ship, as a dirt horse can't get graded earnings on a surface he doesn't like.

the people making mistakes with beyers are those thinking a horse getting a 94 on awt is going to produce a 94 on dirt.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

the people making mistakes with beyers are those thinking a horse getting a 94 on awt is going to produce a 94 on dirt.

There is no real correlation. If it's a dirt horse that happens to handle the synthetic surface, the figure will be higher on the dirt, and if it's a turf horse that won't handle dirt, then the figure has no predictive power for future dirt races. The horses that won on synthetics that later won dirt races were hampered by the synthetics, in all likelihood, whether they won on them or not. As an extreme, look at Zenyatta. Her dirt race last year was far and away her most impressive win. It's a shame we can't see her really strut her stuff on the dirt. It might be extremely exciting....as she may well be being muted running only on synthetics.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There is no real correlation. If it's a dirt horse that happens to handle the synthetic surface, the figure will be higher on the dirt, and if it's a turf horse that won't handle dirt, then the figure has no predictive power for future dirt races. The horses that won on synthetics that later won dirt races were hampered by the synthetics, in all likelihood, whether they won on them or not. As an extreme, look at Zenyatta. Her dirt race last year was far and away her most impressive win. It's a shame we can't see her really strut her stuff on the dirt. It might be extremely exciting....as she may well be being muted running only on synthetics.

exactly. it's my contention that those saying beyers are misleading on awt is incorrect. the only time it's misleading would be when trying to take an awt # and figure whether a horse will run back to that # on dirt. but i think many are just saying no awt beyer is useful-i just think it depends on where and when you're using it. obviously potn likes awt-so why anyone would toss his beyer # on that surface is beyond me.