Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[miraja2]

The guys on ESPN really need to stop acting like the mythical title of "best horse in 25 years" hangs in the balance today. Regardless of what happens today, Curlin is not the best horse in 25 years. Just compare his speed figs with Easy Goer's:

Races with BSFs of 115 or higher
Easy Goer: 9
Curlin: 1

Races with BSFs of 120 or higher
Easy Goer: 4
Curlin: 0

Now, speed figs aren't everything, and the Dubai trip complicates the comparison a bit, but it is obvious that Easy Goer towers over Curlin. When you then factor in that Easy Goer was arguably only the second best horse from that crop, it becomes pretty clear that this idea is ridiculous. Curlin is clearly a good horse, but even if he wins easily today, he is not the best horse in 25 years, and I wish guys like Tessitore would stop pretending otherwise.

[sumitas]

The wiley Dattori sat off Curlin . Then pushed the button just a little later and that got him to the wire soonest .

[the_fat_man]

Perfect trip by Curlin, perfect ride by Albarado. Just got run down by horses that had never been the distance.

[Danzig]

now, am i the only one calling bullsh!t when jess jackson was being interviewed before the race, or is it the cynic in me rearing it's head? he gave all those wonderful, flowery reasons for running curlin this year. but do we really believe it was for sportsmanship, for the game, the horses legacy, etc? or was it the only choice due to the legalities surrounding the horse? i think it's because not one stud farm out there would touch him because of midnight cry, and all the surrounding issues to go with it.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Danzig

now, am i the only one calling bullsh!t when jess jackson was being interviewed before the race, or is it the cynic in me rearing it's head? he gave all those wonderful, flowery reasons for running curlin this year. but do we really believe it was for sportsmanship, for the game, the horses legacy, etc? or was it the only choice due to the legalities surrounding the horse? i think it's because not one stud farm out there would touch him because of midnight cry, and all the surrounding issues to go with it.

No, you weren't the only one. It was making me nuts. I was happy Curlin ran this year; it was a lot of fun watching him win Dubai, and watching him try the turf, etc., but I don't think if there weren't legal issues around that last 20 percent of him that we would have seen this. Did you notice when Jackson started to say something about without the fans there's no sport he stumbled over his words and it ended up garbled? Because I think by that point even he couldn't spout something so blatantly untrue. It's not about us and never is.

That aside, it was still a nice way to spend the evening (I had to work Sat and watched the races on DVR). Yay for everyone coming back safe!

Does anyone know how many European horses ran versus how many American? The math nerd in me is curious how the win percentages Euro vs. American came out.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Perfect trip by Curlin, perfect ride by Albarado. Just got run down by horses that had never been the distance.

Horrible ride, Albarado was out rode by smarter and better jockeys all three in which finished in front of him. It was not the surface either, it was poor decision making and a awful judge of pace.

With that slow pace(which was a given when one read the PP's), why not wait a little longer, save ground, and make a run for the wire in the stretch??

IMO... He rode the horse like the win was a guarantee and the only thing that was of concern was by how many lengths were to be between him and the field.

To the thread topic, Curlin was/is not the best in 25 years. I would not have thought so if he had won this race by 32 lengths. This field was very questionable, with no real legit G1 winners other than the Euros.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pba1817

With that slow pace(which was a given when one read the PP's), why not wait a little longer, save ground, and make a run for the wire in the stretch??

Where are they teaching this approach?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Where are they teaching this approach?

blame the jock university?

[sumitas]

Seemed like the finishers were all keying on Curlin . Hard to win when you are marked like that. But that's the clarity of hind sight .

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Where are they teaching this approach?

This is the approach Albarado should have taken instead of riding the race like the win was a formality and the only thing in question was how many he was going be ahead by when he crossed the wire.

I do not know where they teach it, but apparently the Euro's are subscribing to it.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pba1817

This is the approach Albarado should have taken instead of riding the race like the win was a formality and the only thing in question was how many he was going be ahead by when he crossed the wire.

I do not know where they teach it, but apparently the Euro's are subscribing to it.

This is America, Ace. Drafting behind horses is considered getting a POOR TRIP here. Wide, no cover, PREMATURE moves are the norm. This is the land of BIASES. Take the lead on a dirt track and you're typically home. Curlin, the best horse in the land, is outkicked by a couple of milers, as his rider is in a hurry to make the lead by the turn. Great way to go down.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Horrible ride, Albarado was out rode by smarter and better jockeys all three in which finished in front of him. It was not the surface either, it was poor decision making and a awful judge of pace.

You're kidding right? The horse who finished just ahead (Tiago) of him hadn't finished within 5 lengths of him in any of 4 starts on dirt. Are you telling me the form magically reversed itself?

With that slow pace(which was a given when one read the PP's), why not wait a little longer, save ground, and make a run for the wire in the stretch??

The horse hasn't come from between horses in 2 years. Good strategy. Let's take the biggest race of the year and change tactics. Not one dirt (ha ha)race was one on the inside paths.
IMO... He rode the horse like the win was a guarantee and the only thing that was of concern was by how many lengths were to be between him and the field.

He rode the race exactly as he had every others on the horse. If you look at the race it bears a striking resemblance to the Man O'War, where he hung late on...............TURF.

To the thread topic, Curlin was/is not the best in 25 years. I would not have thought so if he had won this race by 32 lengths. This field was very questionable, with no real legit G1 winners other than the Euros.

And to use the thread starter's example, Easy Goer beat It's Acedemic, Clevor Trevor and DeRoche.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Revidere

And to use the thread starter's example, Easy Goer beat It's Acedemic, Clevor Trevor and DeRoche.

I never said go to the inside, but not go 7-8 wide around the entire turn. The horses who passed him(good, bad, otherwise) employed this tactic.

It worked for 3 of them right?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pba1817

IMO... He rode the horse like the win was a guarantee and the only thing that was of concern was by how many lengths were to be between him and the field.

I agree with this. I think he consistently moves early on this horse. He's gotten away with it against Past the Point and Wanderin Boy and thought he could do the same today.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with this. I think he consistently moves early on this horse. He's gotten away with it against Past the Point and Wanderin Boy and thought he could do the same today.

by the same token, they said earlier in the show that it takes longer to catch horses on the awt's. maybe that was his thinking as well?
hard to say. he rode like he had the best horse, and all year, he has had the best horse.
too bad he's going out like this. curlin hadn't lost on dirt since the haskell. er, real dirt.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

by the same token, they said earlier in the show that it takes longer to catch horses on the awt's. maybe that was his thinking as well?
hard to say. he rode like he had the best horse, and all year, he has had the best horse.
too bad he's going out like this. curlin hadn't lost on dirt since the haskell. er, real dirt.

He made the move that won most of the BC "dirt" races this year. Just wasnt good enough. Losing to Ravens Pass isnt something to be ashamed of. Getting outfinished for third by Tiago is. The last 2 races he won by small margins over weak horses were chalked up to his only doing what he had to do to win. I still believe he just isnt as great as his fans believe him to be and has been fortunate to run in the era of the worst older horses, probably ever. He is a very good horse but not in the top 50 of all time and certainly not the best of the last 25 years. Clever Trevor, by the way, would be a full fledged star nowadays.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Danzig

by the same token, they said earlier in the show that it takes longer to catch horses on the awt's. maybe that was his thinking as well?
hard to say. he rode like he had the best horse, and all year, he has had the best horse.
too bad he's going out like this. curlin hadn't lost on dirt since the haskell. er, real dirt.

And if you believe what "they" say on TV all the time, you aren't very smart. You know better than that!!

It was a bad ride, plain and simple. He sorely misjudged the pace and was out finished by 3 horses, not 1, but 3!!! Getting out finished by 1 would have been acceptable, simply a better horse, but to be out finished by 3 and Tiago as one of them.... not good at all.