Colonel John

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There was a great amount of discussion about him prior to the Derby and I know DrugS made it clear on this site that Tiznow's progeny are doing extraordinarily well on synthetic surfaces. Thus, Colonel John's ability to win a race like the Travers is completely unknown until he tries conventional dirt again.

I can tell you this much, if he comes into the Travers off of a good race in the Swaps but with no dirt race since the Derby, I'll bet against him with both fists.

NT

I was disappointed Colonel John didn't contest either of the remain TC races. He showed in his CD workout, which may have been a bit too fast in retrospect (sub-58 for 5f) that he could handle the dirt. In the Derby, as is typical of Corey Nakatani in that race (see Halory Hunter, AP Valentine, Alyrob, etc), he was placed way too far back in the field to make an impact. Whereas he was typically no more than 5 or 6 off the pace (and even sometimes right on top of it) in his previous starts, having him nearly 20 lengths arrears early certainly didn't put him in position to win, particularly when he's displayed more of a "grinder"-type finish in his off-the-pace efforts. Regardless, he did make a big middle move to at least reach the second flight of horse before failing to sustain his bid, none which suggests that the surface was much of a problem.

I suppose he skipped the last two classics to prepare for this second half. Unfortunately, now, he faces what may be a much tougher Swaps then previously anticipated. Two Step Salsa (who at this stage is still on the fence) has been monstrous on the lead in his last pair going 7f and 8.5f. The Swaps figures to come up light in field size and pace, putting this colt in prime position to derail Colonel John's summer, right off the bat.