Memo to Dutrow, Casino Drive is Godzilla

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Big Brown is bred to run all day ... not sure why you think he won't get the 12 panels.

He really isn't. He is by a sprinter. Maybe he outruns his pedigree but he is not a 12f horse.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

He really isn't. He is by a sprinter. Maybe he outruns his pedigree but he is not a 12f horse.

whether or not he's a 12F horse, I don't know.
I do know he's going to win a big 12F race on june 7th.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

He really isn't. He is by a sprinter. Maybe he outruns his pedigree but he is not a 12f horse.

more to it than AWD per sire

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

He really isn't. He is by a sprinter. Maybe he outruns his pedigree but he is not a 12f horse.

I would suggest looking a bit further into his female family.

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I would suggest looking a bit further into his female family.

Look all you want. You better have it on top and bottom if you want to run 12f and beat a horse with Casino Drive's pedigree.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

Look all you want. You better have it on top and bottom if you want to run 12f and beat a horse with Casino Drive's pedigree.

LOL

Think what you want ... we shall see on June 7th. I don't think the 12 panels is going to be a problem for this horse. As fragile as the Mineshaft's have been, you better hope Casino Drive holds up for a mile and a half.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The horses who have upset the T.C. candidates haven't had to be great. They just needed to finish up well. It isn't about them. The combination of

1) peaking in the Preakness

2) slightly different surface (looser "big sandy" surface)

3) no tight turns they are so used to

4) 12 f

seems to be what beats them....Not other horses.

[Zippy Chippy]

Desormeaux gave Big Brown a hand ride yesterday and crushed the field by five lengths. This horse still has a lot left in the tank, and there really isn't a good reason to think that he can't go 12 panels in three weeks against this competition and win.

Casino Drive may put up a fight, but I don't see Big Brown losing the Belmont.

[Zippy Chippy]

Forgive me for having too much time on my hands, but I was curious to see what the odds of one broodmare foaling the winner of a race like the Belmont three years in a row.

Using an rough estimate of 35,000 foals per year:
The odds of a broodmare foaling one Belmont winner is 1 in 35,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling two consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 1,225,000,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling three consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 42,875,000,000,000.

I'm no mathematician, so take it for what it's worth. Either way, it could be historic Belmont. If Casino Drive does pull it off, then Better Than Honor will have beaten some incredible odds.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

We wont know for three weeks, but I feel that Smarty and Funny Cide were both pushed in the Preakness a little to hard. They won by open lenghts but I think it took a lot more out of them than Big Brown.

Big Brown didnt even look tired after the race and the only time he actually ran hard were those 5 strides he took to open up 6 on the field. Kent looked like he had a hold of him for like a mile in that race. shoot he even said he was still holding him back around the far turn, and once he opened up Kent eased on him. He looked like he wanted to run 2 miles yesterday.

I may go out on the limb and say there will be at least 6 lengths between Big Brown and Casino Drive at the end of the Belmont, with Big Brown in front of course. I really feel it will be a Point Given / Afleet Alex type Belmont performance.

[Zippy Chippy]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs.

If I recall correctly, wasn't Funny Cide needlessly whipped all the way to the wire in his Preakness? It seemed like that driving finish sapped him of energy that he would need three weeks later. As for Smarty, I wonder if he was running against a stronger crop with more legitimate contenders. It seemed like they threw speed at him the whole way. I kind of think that Big Brown can rate the speedballs and take over the race once they have burned out.