Eight Belles form

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

First of all - in RTG's case - you have one big race (which happened to be a win over an inside-speed biased track while setting a slow pace) That giant jump-up had more to do with pace and trip and even if you want to pretend that number was a legit indication of how well he ran. It also hasn't been repeated over and over.

It was also his first dirt race at age 3. There was a 5 month gap between that race in his prior dirt start.

In his prior dirt race, he was 2nd beaten 2 lengths to Cool Coal Man with a career top 86 Beyer.

You are right, RTG jumped 16 points to a new top in the Ill Derby. However, it was only his 3rd lifetime dirt start, and his first in 5 months, and he had an uncontested lead over an inside speed track while setting a slow pace.

That was a horrible analogy. Alina would have been much better...even though she was trainer change and layoff like Cantrel.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

First of all - in RTG's case - you have one big race (which happened to be a win over an inside-speed biased track while setting a slow pace) That giant jump-up had more to do with pace and trip and even if you want to pretend that number was a legit indication of how well he ran - it hasn't been repeated over and over.
It was also his first dirt race at age 3. There was a 5 month gap between that race in his prior dirt start.

In his prior dirt race, he was 2nd beaten 2 lengths to Cool Coal Man with a career top 86 Beyer.

You are right, RTG jumped 16 points to a new top in the Ill Derby. However, it was only his 3rd lifetime dirt start, and his first in 5 months, and he had an uncontested lead over an inside speed track while setting a slow pace.

That was a horrible analogy. Alina would have been much better...even though she was trainer change and layoff like Cantrel.

I fished and you bit. OF COURSE RTG's explosion was due to pace and trip, we know that because it was so plainly obvious. Note the pace in Eight Belles' 12/23 race... they went 1:14 to 6F. 4 weeks later, they went 1:12 4/5 (so on raw time, 7.5 lengths faster) and she was uncontested in the stretch.

Basically you're implying that based on the chain of events, Larry Jones is cheating, with some type of snake venom concoction or something, especially with the comparison to Lake. I didn't want to come out and say that but that's the impression that I get. Please tell me I'm reading your statements incorrectly.

[freddymo]

DrugS the filly broke down I don't believe she was drugged into thinking she was fine. Beyer maybe right that the breed is becoming more and more fragile. This move up drug theory is really highly spectulative if you ask me... By all accounts Jones is one of the good guys?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I fished and you bit. OF COURSE RTG's explosion was due to pace and trip, we know that because it was so plainly obvious. Note the pace in Eight Belles' 12/23 race... they went 1:14 to 6F. 4 weeks later, they went 1:12 4/5 (so on raw time, 7.5 lengths faster) and she was uncontested in the stretch.

Basically you're implying that based on the chain of events, Larry Jones is cheating, with some type of snake venom concoction or something, especially with the comparison to Lake. I didn't want to come out and say that but that's the impression that I get. Please tell me I'm reading your statements incorrectly.

I am not implying anything. I am not overly subtle and don't post in code.

If you think Eight Belles had sneaky 2yo form - I can only say I strongly disagree. I watched those races and studied the charts of surrounding races. She was mediocre in those races.

As for her 6th race, she ran 20 points faster (11.5 lengths better) than a colt who finished 2nd in a Graded Stake next out.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I am not implying anything. I am not overly subtle and don't post in code.

If you think Eight Belles had sneaky 2yo form - I can only say I strongly disagree. I watched those races and studied the charts of surrounding races. She was mediocre in those races.

As for her 6th race, she ran 20 points faster (11.5 lengths better) than a colt who finished 2nd in a Graded Stake next out.

Then again... she proved on track how superior she is to every colt in this crop, save one.

I don't know if she had sneaky 2YO form or not. I do know she ran 5 very good, not spectacular, races in a row... regardless of what happened prior to that.

I'm glad that's not what you're shooting at, thanks for refuting.