Eight Belles form

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

Yeah, that was my first thought. She won her maiden by 10. Did anyone do their own figures that day to determine whether she might have run in the high 80s and they split it out because the number was too hard to believe?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time.

Yes - often with a trainer change and a layoff - and not always repeted in subsquent races. which is why I used Cantrel as an example. The layoff - trainer change combo didn't happen in Eight Belles case.

Anyone who doesn't think she made a monster improvment in the race she won by 15 lengths, while not favored in the betting, with a conservative 100 Beyer .. I just don't know.

I'm not saying every horse who makes a mind-boggling form reversal, and proceeds to repeat the race over and over, ends up breaking down on the track. They don't. The vast majority of them disappear though.

Alina, who was 2nd to Eight Belles in the Fantasy, is an example of a dramatic form reversal by a horse at a top level who hasn't yet tailed off. She fits the traditional mode of trainer change plus layoff .. Eight Belles doesn't.

Bruce L Jackson trained In Excess, who was one of the better horses I've ever seen in my life - before anyone accuses him of being "a bum" like they did with Pino, who consistantly wins at about a 20% clip.

[10 pnt move up]

There are just certain trainers we see this with constantly in the midwest and east coast........I honestly dont recall a figure jump like this in socal at the stakes level? DrugS do you?

[horseofcourse]

I mentioned Lawyer Ron...here are his first 6 races...

53, 55, 49, 83, 78, 78

then his next 6 pre-Derby

92, 97, 106, 95, 94, 98.

Same trainer, zero layoff. He also did suffer a minor injury in the Derby I believe.

I guess he could be explained away by his first 6 were on turf or poly and his second 6 all on dirt. (Actually his 83 was on a muddy dirt.). But I would certainly say a big change in form without question. I don't think his first 6 are stating future eclipse winner however. But you actually have TWO jumps in form from his first 3 to his second 3...then from those 3 to his next 6. You go from average low 50s his first 3 to average around 80 his next three to average in the high 90s his next 6.

Don't young horses often just improve sometimes with no layoff as this one did twice??

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The only form reversal Lawyer Ron showed was he was MUCH better on dirt than poly or turf. His first dirt race he ran a 83 and then his next dirt race he ran a 92. Hardly a huge reversal, however compared to his turf or poly numbers it might look that way.

Yep, Lawyer Ron couldn't get out of his own way in his synthetic track races early on.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yep, Lawyer Ron couldn't get out of his own way in his synthetic track races early on.

your PM box is full dude

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

your PM box is full dude

He PMs himself to stash away porn links he doesn't want his parents to see.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The only form reversal Lawyer Ron showed was he was MUCH better on dirt than poly or turf. His first dirt race he ran a 83 and then his next dirt race he ran a 92. Hardly a huge reversal, however compared to his turf or poly numbers it might look that way.

His form jump when staying on grass or poly was more significant...he ran around 50s his first 3 then around 80 his next 3. He was running around 80 on turf after his dirt race compared to the low 50s. He improved 15-20 lengths on turf/poly...more than his improvement going from turf to dirt. He showed a significant form increase. I said it can be all explained away by anything. You can pick and choose any numbers that exist to defend any stance you want to take on Eight Belle's improvement.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Now I know what Morty feels like.

Geez. I'm simply not sure of the DrugS point here. Young horses improve significantly all the time. I'm not quite sure how unusual significant form jumps are in young horses...and he showed one of them...BEFORE going to all dirt racing.

summation...

LR

first 3 1 turf/2 poly...low 50s
2nd 3 1 mud/2 turf...80
next 6 dirt...high 90s.

[sumitas]

There should be an autopsy performed on 8 Belles. With toxicology tests.

[ArlJim78]

I'm at work and going from memory, but this is I think a fairly accurate recreation of her tg#'s. there is gradual development over the first five races.
then she shoots all the way over to 1's and o's. normally when you go from a 7 to a 1 there is a pullback (dare I say bounce) at some point, some regression. Her chart just looks odd. I don't claim that there was any cheating, its just really odd. I'm guessing on the derby number, but it had to be at least a zero or one.

derby?...........0
9th race .......1
8th race........1
7th race........0
6th race........1
5th race............................7
4th race..............................8
3rd race................................10
2nd race..................................13
1st race....................................14

also someone mentioned the bris numbers and I think they were looking at the final speed. In addition to the final speed her first and second call pace numbers jumped a lot on that 6th race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm at work and going from memory, but this is I think a fairly accurate recreation of her tg#'s. there is gradual development over the first five races.
then she shoots all the way over to 1's and o's. normally when you go from a 7 to a 1 there is a pullback (dare I say bounce) at some point, some regression. Her chart just looks odd. I don't claim that there was any cheating, its just really odd. I'm guessing on the derby number, but it had to be at least a zero or one.

derby?...........0
9th race .......1
8th race........1
7th race........0
6th race........1
5th race............................7
4th race..............................8
3rd race................................10
2nd race..................................13
1st race....................................14

also someone mentioned the bris numbers and I think they were looking at the final speed. In addition to the final speed her first and second call pace numbers jumped a lot on that 6th race.

Her 6th race represented a career top of 10.94 lengths on Thoro-Graph figures. On Beyer figures, it was a 12.75 length career top.