2008 Kentucky Derby predictions

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Brian, can I ask you what it is that you like about Recapturetheglory? Just curious as that is one that I haven't seen many people pick.

He's a stab, I admit it. And the day after the Illinois Derby, I was first in line to trash him to anyone who would listen. But after watching the day's races again, it was clear to me that being on the lead and inside was the place to be, but I don't think it was anything near the advantage that people are making it out to be. Did he benefit from the track profile? Of course. But the fact remains that he ticked off remarkably consistent quarter miles throughout the race, and he wasn't going to get caught if they went around ten more times, slight inside bias or not.

I don't think he's War Emblem, but I'm willing to rate his Illinois Derby as much closer to that guy's performance than Cowtown Cat's last year.

If he were going to head to post at 12-1, I'd want nothing to do with him based on the setup of the race. But he's going to be a solid price, and since I'm of the school of thought that the track didn't help him along as much as some others think -- then he's coming into this race off what is arguably the second or third fastest race run by any Derby runner this year depending on who you ask.

Call me crazy.