5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Danzig

a horse wins at 7f.
finishes third, about a length back of the winner at 1 1/16.
he finishes second, but almost 8 lengths back, at 1 1/8. so, because he finished second to big brown, i should consider him? but i should ignore the 8 length loss?

besides, isn't big brown running saturday? is he suddenly slower? should i ignore the fact that smooth air is further back the longer the distance becomes when he is facing his longest race yet?

I'm not one of those ultra-mathematical pace figure guys, but I try to think out the likely pace scenarios, in the manner such as Brohamer writes about in his chapter on pace in Bet With the Best (except that with a race as long as the Derby, I key on the likely positions of the horses at the second call rather than the first). Smooth Air easily survives the early pace and seems to me likely, of the many pressers in this race, to get first crack at the frontrunners. Also, when you look at the Brisnet pace figures (E1 E2/ LATE), Smooth Air's best recent numbers (96 111/ 94) aren't that far off the Derby par (96 107/ 102). Only Big Brown's recent numbers are better (107 117/ 98), but Smooth Air has a stronger best late pace figure (105) than BB (98).

One difference (among many, I know) between this race and the Florida Derby is that Big Brown is way out in the 20 hole, where he's going to have to expend a lot of energy to obtain at least a decent stalking position (especially with Gayego on his immediate inside, who I think will have to go with BB), whereas Smooth Air will have a much easier time obtaining a good position from the 12 hole.

Bottom line is that both Big Brown and Smooth Air ran a near Kentucky Derby caliber performance in the Florida Derby, in terms of pace. Smooth Air, due to his superior position, has the better chance of improving in this race off that performance, in my opinion.