5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)

[Danzig]

i had monba pre-foy..supposedly he suffered a pretty good sized cut on his leg in that race, might help explain his one really bad effort. but i'd hate to go ga-ga over him based on the bluegrass.

[MarkyD]

question?

why is big truck biggest longshot on board at 50/1.

This guy is better then half the field.

I believe he can sneak in top 4.

[Danzig]

but isn't big trucks claim to fame that he picked up the pieces in the tampa bay derby? he didn't do much last out...but then, neither did pyro and cool coal man!

i see him closer to the back of the field then the front....i think tale of ekati is barclays best shot at this.

[MarkyD]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but isn't big trucks claim to fame that he picked up the pieces in the tampa bay derby? he didn't do much last out...but then, neither did pyro and cool coal man!

i see him closer to the back of the field then the front....i think tale of ekati is barclays best shot at this.

I guess. But I am watching all races tonight on KD.com, and, yes he only has that 1 win this year, but his last three races look ok to me. He looks good in trafic and always tries. I like to see that. ok, BlueG was bad, maybe same excuse as Pyro, but he never has ran over CD surface. Maybe might like it,
you think?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

question?

why is big truck biggest longshot on board at 50/1.

This guy is better then half the field.

I agree.
Given his two races in Tampa, his trainer, his running style, his dam-side pedigree, and his favorable post position Big Truck certainly does not strike me as the LEAST likely winner here.
While he isn't close to being the MOST likely to hit the board either, if people are playing deep TRIs or SUPERs, he might be worth including underneath.
If he does somehow go off at 50/1 (which I find improbable) I might also put a little WP bet on him.....just in case.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i had monba pre-foy..supposedly he suffered a pretty good sized cut on his leg in that race, might help explain his one really bad effort. but i'd hate to go ga-ga over him based on the bluegrass.

LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

[SniperSB23]

My guess on final odds. Feel free to disagree but realize that if one's odds go up then anothers must go down.

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 18-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 12-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 70-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 21-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 22-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 12-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 27-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 40-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 7-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 5-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 90-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 16-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 40-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 30-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 65-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 7-2

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

My guess on final odds. Feel free to disagree but realize that if one's odds go up then anothers must go down.

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 18-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 12-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 70-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 21-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 22-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 12-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 27-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 40-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 7-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 5-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 90-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 16-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 40-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 30-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 65-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 7-2

Pretty good line.. I would say that Tale of Ekati, Cool Coal Man and Big Truck will be higher significantly higher, while Eight Belles will be significantly lower. Colonel John will be a tad lower I think, as well. Monba seems a little low to me as well, and Denis of Cork is a bit high. I'll post my estimate on the blog, but warning: I know nothing about figuring in takeout.

[geof]

The odds look about right. I will be buying a $2 tri key 10-all-4,5,14,15,20

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by geof

The odds look about right. I will be buying a $2 tri key 10-all-4,5,14,15,20

I think you would be better off betting a $1 trifecta twice instead of one $2 bet, just in case the tri were to be less than $1,200 and more than $600. Know what I mean?

on a side note I am tossing Colonel John
so you have a shot at cashing a ticket.

Ae - the heaviest $2 in racing

[Rudeboyelvis]

Pyro
Denis of Cork
Z Fortune
Smooth Air
Eight Belles

$2 tri/Sup box....Book it, Boys

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

problem is, there are many horses in the field who could conceivably get into the tri. but yeah, he'd be one i'd play.

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

I've got him at 35-1 in pool two of the KDFW, so I won't bother with any win action on him on race day. But I will use him in all exotics; he's got a shot to be in the mix.

[tjfla]

Just wondering- Anyone think Bob Black Jack can hold on to 3rd or 4th??


Thinking about throwing him on some tickets but doubt he could hold off alot of the closers

[azerica]

5-8-10-13

[alysheba4]

20/10,14/9,10,14/6,9,10,14.....tri & super the more i look at monba the more i think he is worth a stab.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Just wondering- Anyone think Bob Black Jack can hold on to 3rd or 4th??


Thinking about throwing him on some tickets but doubt he could hold off alot of the closers

No, I don't think he lasts. Of the five speeds, he's drawn the inside and is almost certain to get early and ongoing outside pace pressure. I think he's the first of the lead pack to fold.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i had monba pre-foy..supposedly he suffered a pretty good sized cut on his leg in that race, might help explain his one really bad effort. but i'd hate to go ga-ga over him based on the bluegrass.

Monba and Smooth Air are must use underneath. I still feel the winner will come from Pyro BB or CJ. Ihave got to decide because I dont feel I can use all 3 in multi race wagers without making them a losing proposition.I feel that SA will beat at least one of the top three but not all of them.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Monba and Smooth Air are must use underneath. I still feel the winner will come from Pyro BB or CJ. Ihave got to decide because I dont feel I can use all 3 in multi race wagers without making them a losing proposition.I feel that SA will beat at least one of the top three but not all of them.

i completely disagree about smooth air. as the distances have increased, he has increased the distance between himself and the winner. the horse hasn't won a race since he ran 7f. others i'd use over him.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i completely disagree about smooth air. as the distances have increased, he has increased the distance between himself and the winner. the horse hasn't won a race since he ran 7f. others i'd use over him.

Im not touting for the win just to hit the board. He runs the same race everytime. Instead of trying to build doubles pk3 pk4 andtris and supers Ill just play the wad on SA to show. The more I think about it this makes the most sense.