5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)

[Lava]

Matz took the 8

[Mike]

Big win bet on Denis of Cork

3 horse exacta box of Denis/BigBrown/Pyro

3 horse trifecta box of Denis/Big Brown/Pyro

[mac attack]

10/12/13/15 write it down and take it to the bank, denis of cork doesn't have a chance in hell

[Bobby Fischer]

the public will hammer brown down to about 2-1

gotta remember BB was about 75-1 here for the Fla derby after drawing impossible post 12 and he still went off pretty low in "real life".
John will get lots of love as well.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by mac attack

10/12/13/15 write it down and take it to the bank, denis of cork doesn't have a chance in hell

Smooth Air, Bob Black Jack, and Adriano?
Ummm.............no.

[Oaklawnfan]

16-5-6-12
Good luck ya'll

[HaloWishingwell]

Since Dutrow is betting big on BIG BROWN and is so sure of victory, maybe he took post 20 take sweeten his odds.

[jman5581]

Tri 10/20 with 10/20 with ALL

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

10 w/
2/4/5/6/8/9/12/14

10 w/
4/6/8/9/12
4/6/8/9/12

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I don't understand leaving Monba out of the back end of that tri.I think Dominguez/Pletcher need to be respected a little more than a lot of people are doing.Dominguez almost seems to set his goal as getting 2nd-4th in nice races.He has only run 1 bad race.Is it really going to surprise you if that horse gets a suck up 3rd?

[Danzig]

i had monba pre-foy..supposedly he suffered a pretty good sized cut on his leg in that race, might help explain his one really bad effort. but i'd hate to go ga-ga over him based on the bluegrass.

[MarkyD]

question?

why is big truck biggest longshot on board at 50/1.

This guy is better then half the field.

I believe he can sneak in top 4.

[Danzig]

but isn't big trucks claim to fame that he picked up the pieces in the tampa bay derby? he didn't do much last out...but then, neither did pyro and cool coal man!

i see him closer to the back of the field then the front....i think tale of ekati is barclays best shot at this.

[MarkyD]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but isn't big trucks claim to fame that he picked up the pieces in the tampa bay derby? he didn't do much last out...but then, neither did pyro and cool coal man!

i see him closer to the back of the field then the front....i think tale of ekati is barclays best shot at this.

I guess. But I am watching all races tonight on KD.com, and, yes he only has that 1 win this year, but his last three races look ok to me. He looks good in trafic and always tries. I like to see that. ok, BlueG was bad, maybe same excuse as Pyro, but he never has ran over CD surface. Maybe might like it,
you think?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

question?

why is big truck biggest longshot on board at 50/1.

This guy is better then half the field.

I agree.
Given his two races in Tampa, his trainer, his running style, his dam-side pedigree, and his favorable post position Big Truck certainly does not strike me as the LEAST likely winner here.
While he isn't close to being the MOST likely to hit the board either, if people are playing deep TRIs or SUPERs, he might be worth including underneath.
If he does somehow go off at 50/1 (which I find improbable) I might also put a little WP bet on him.....just in case.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i had monba pre-foy..supposedly he suffered a pretty good sized cut on his leg in that race, might help explain his one really bad effort. but i'd hate to go ga-ga over him based on the bluegrass.

LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

[SniperSB23]

My guess on final odds. Feel free to disagree but realize that if one's odds go up then anothers must go down.

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 18-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 12-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 70-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 21-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 22-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 12-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 27-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 40-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 7-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 5-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 90-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 16-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 40-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 30-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 65-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 7-2

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

My guess on final odds. Feel free to disagree but realize that if one's odds go up then anothers must go down.

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 18-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 12-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 70-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 21-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 22-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 12-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 27-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 40-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 7-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 5-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 90-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 16-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 40-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 30-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 65-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 7-2

Pretty good line.. I would say that Tale of Ekati, Cool Coal Man and Big Truck will be higher significantly higher, while Eight Belles will be significantly lower. Colonel John will be a tad lower I think, as well. Monba seems a little low to me as well, and Denis of Cork is a bit high. I'll post my estimate on the blog, but warning: I know nothing about figuring in takeout.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

problem is, there are many horses in the field who could conceivably get into the tri. but yeah, he'd be one i'd play.

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

I've got him at 35-1 in pool two of the KDFW, so I won't bother with any win action on him on race day. But I will use him in all exotics; he's got a shot to be in the mix.