5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wondered the same thing, but in a different way. Why not take the 2? If you break like a shot, wouldn't it be better to be in the 2 hole than have to waste all that time getting over and potentially have to use him even more?

Assuming that you're basically screwed if you blow the break, why not roll the dice with the 2 and potentially fall into a dream trip?

He could have had an Evening Attire like break and still been ahead of the horses in the 3 and 4 holes in a few strides. I could understand skipping the 2slot if there was some speed right there that truly could screw him if he missed the break but there wasn't.

[Scav]

BOOGADEE BOOGADEE BOO

God I love the chaos.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Scav

BOOGADEE BOOGADEE BOO

God I love the chaos.

hate that.


damn, gayego hung out wide....and big brown in the 20, daaaaayum...

[slotdirt]

Question: with the awful - in perception if not in reality - post and other factors, is it possible Big Brown won't go off as the favorite? If the folks on this board are any indication, there seems to be much more support for the horse breaking from the 10 post than the 20. Just an observation.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Question: with the awful - in perception if not in reality - post and other factors, is it possible Big Brown won't go off as the favorite? If the folks on this board are any indication, there seems to be much more support for the horse breaking from the 10 post than the 20. Just an observation.

Yeah, this really has me wondering. I think Watchmaker's M/L is low. I really think both Big Brown and Colonel John will go off around 4/1, with maybe Big Brown a tick lower at 7/2. Either way, the post is bad news for people that thought Big Brown would be some huge chalk. And all I know is even though I think he's one of the most likely winners on Saturday, I would never bet Colonel John at 4/1.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Question: with the awful - in perception if not in reality - post and other factors, is it possible Big Brown won't go off as the favorite? If the folks on this board are any indication, there seems to be much more support for the horse breaking from the 10 post than the 20. Just an observation.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Colonel John will be the favorite. Big Brown will be 3rd choice
maybe

[NoLuvForPletch]

#33 Today, 12:47 PM
Scav
Royal Ascot Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Chi
Posts: 9,187

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch
I love the hype this horse is getting...he beat El Gato Malaise by a half a length and the super offspring of Stormy Jack, Bob's Black Jack who's best race is probably a mile, by half a length at a mile and an 1/8th. Whoooppiiee!! He's never Beyered 100. Actually, he's barely shaded 5 lengths slower than 100. And, he's never run on dirt in the afternoon.

This folks is your second choice. And with the PP draw,and some more hype, could be the favorite.


here in lies the issue of old school handicapping. the Beyer over 100 isn't common on synthetics, I agree there are question marks, let there be them because I am hoping my odds hold.

You are out of your mind thinking this horse will be favored over Big Brown

I Love it...please please please make CJ the favorite...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

#33 Today, 12:47 PM
Scav
Royal Ascot Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Chi
Posts: 9,187

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch
I love the hype this horse is getting...he beat El Gato Malaise by a half a length and the super offspring of Stormy Jack, Bob's Black Jack who's best race is probably a mile, by half a length at a mile and an 1/8th. Whoooppiiee!! He's never Beyered 100. Actually, he's barely shaded 5 lengths slower than 100. And, he's never run on dirt in the afternoon.

This folks is your second choice. And with the PP draw,and some more hype, could be the favorite.


here in lies the issue of old school handicapping. the Beyer over 100 isn't common on synthetics, I agree there are question marks, let there be them because I am hoping my odds hold.

You are out of your mind thinking this horse will be favored over Big Brown

I Love it...please please please make CJ the favorite...

I smell a crow pie baking in the oven ...

[asudevil]

4/10
Supers:
10/all/4/all
10/all/all/4

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He could have had an Evening Attire like break and still been ahead of the horses in the 3 and 4 holes in a few strides. I could understand skipping the 2slot if there was some speed right there that truly could screw him if he missed the break but there wasn't.

Also, seems like drawing closely to the outside of Cowboy Cal, Recapture', Gayego, and Bob Black Jack could pose some problems for him getting the kind of sweet spot that makes a win from the 20 a real possibility.

I dunno, time will tell. I think he might just be that good, but I'd certainly be loads happier if he were in the 2.