DERBY PACE MUST READ: Moss' Preview/Review

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think this is something that needs to be considered in general. In a large field, with the possibility of a contested pace, and middle moves, there's always the possibility that some late runner will pick up the pieces. But you can't handicap this way because the ONLY WAY this type gets up is with a complete collapse of the race. Typically, this type can't run otherwise. So, in the Bluegrass, for example, Visionare would've need the speed, the chasers, the middle movers, AND all the other late runners to COLLAPSE, in order to win the race. (This is not to say that Visionaire is this one dimensional, only that his last effort was of this type.)

Typically, there are other horses who have shown that they don't need ABSOLUTELY PERFECT SETUPS to run credibly. These are the ones I focus on.

Then the Colonel must be in the picture for you. I think this horse has shown that he can win under a variety of placements. More than any other horse in the race. Looks like he is gonna get in trouble and he just eases into another pace or spot without problem. He will be the 2nd choice. Probably not worth the win. But I have a hard time seeing him out of the exotics. PP pending.