DERBY PACE MUST READ: Moss' Preview/Review

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Be careful tossing horses like this (Visionaire) from the bottom of your exotics tix...

Think Steppenwolfer.. Jazil.. Imawildandcrazyguy.. et al. When many are dead tired and stopping, horses like this can keep going at their one-paced speed and get third or fourth.

May not be Visionaire Saturday, but "passed tired rivals" isn't such a bad quality when searching out Derby exotics fillers...

Right....but that's a sort of " after the fact " kind of thing....as well as obvious.

I think the point being made is that Visionaire may not have been so much as closing in the Blue Grass but not falling apart like many of his rivals in that race. The contention is obviously not that some of the exotic fillers in the Derby will be " passing tired rivals " but that Visionaire only gave the illusion of running OK in the Blue Grass....when in fact he wasn't.

[hockey2315]

At 10F I expect Visionaire to be one of the "tired rivals"

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right....but that's a sort of " after the fact " kind of thing....as well as obvious.

I think the point being made is that Visionaire may not have been so much as closing in the Blue Grass but not falling apart like many of his rivals in that race. The contention is obviously not that some of the exotic fillers in the Derby will be " passing tired rivals " but that Visionaire only gave the illusion of running OK in the Blue Grass....when in fact he wasn't.

I think this is something that needs to be considered in general. In a large field, with the possibility of a contested pace, and middle moves, there's always the possibility that some late runner will pick up the pieces. But you can't handicap this way because the ONLY WAY this type gets up is with a complete collapse of the race. Typically, this type can't run otherwise. So, in the Bluegrass, for example, Visionare would've need the speed, the chasers, the middle movers, AND all the other late runners to COLLAPSE, in order to win the race. (This is not to say that Visionaire is this one dimensional, only that his last effort was of this type.)

Typically, there are other horses who have shown that they don't need ABSOLUTELY PERFECT SETUPS to run credibly. These are the ones I focus on.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think this is something that needs to be considered in general. In a large field, with the possibility of a contested pace, and middle moves, there's always the possibility that some late runner will pick up the pieces. But you can't handicap this way because the ONLY WAY this type gets up is with a complete collapse of the race. Typically, this type can't run otherwise. So, in the Bluegrass, for example, Visionare would've need the speed, the chasers, the middle movers, AND all the other late runners to COLLAPSE, in order to win the race. (This is not to say that Visionaire is this one dimensional, only that his last effort was of this type.)

Typically, there are other horses who have shown that they don't need ABSOLUTELY PERFECT SETUPS to run credibly. These are the ones I focus on.

Then the Colonel must be in the picture for you. I think this horse has shown that he can win under a variety of placements. More than any other horse in the race. Looks like he is gonna get in trouble and he just eases into another pace or spot without problem. He will be the 2nd choice. Probably not worth the win. But I have a hard time seeing him out of the exotics. PP pending.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right....but that's a sort of " after the fact " kind of thing....as well as obvious.

I think the point being made is that Visionaire may not have been so much as closing in the Blue Grass but not falling apart like many of his rivals in that race. The contention is obviously not that some of the exotic fillers in the Derby will be " passing tired rivals " but that Visionaire only gave the illusion of running OK in the Blue Grass....when in fact he wasn't.

Well, it's not 'ATF' if you offered up Jazil and Steppenwolfer as includes on your ticket... I understand the point that was being addressed re: Visionaire, and was going after a 'baby with the bathwater' thing in terms of structuring Derby plays.