Derby Grid/Graded Earnings

[philcski]

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

Like what you are doing here, but it seems weighted towards the 20-30 range, where they are probably 3-4 horses that will be in the 50 to 80/1 range

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cardus

How did you arrive at these numbers?

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

They look pretty spot on to me. Thanks for posting those.

I do think Visionaire and Court Vision will be considerably lower than the ones you predict at maybe 25/1 and 18/1 respectively.

[hockey2315]

16-1 on Cool Coal Man looks low. . . At least it'll mean that my future bet on him at 20-1 actually offered value. . .

[IrishofNDMan]

I agree with Scavs and expect a couple of them to be higher in the 45 or 50-1 range. I was thinking Monba will be higher than 13-1, and recapturetheglory is one of the horses that will be 40-1.

[hockey2315]

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

who do you think will be lower than my guesses? remember this was done with the true math included, so for every horse that's higher odds there's got to be one lower.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by philcski

who do you think will be lower than my guesses? remember this was done with the true math included, so for every horse that's higher odds there's got to be one lower.

I predicted recapturetheglory at 40-1 rather than 25-1, and Monba at 20-1 rather than 13-1.

I would say that Gayego will be about 14-1 instead of 21-1 (I'm not touching either way) and I think Smooth Air will be in the 20's instead of 32-1.

Don't get me wrong I think it's a great list you made, I wanted to just add some of my opinions.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

It's the difference between what he likely deserves to be and what he actually WILL be. That Hawthorne fig will jump off the page to lots of casual bettors with no real knowledge of what happened outside of the bold number attached to it.

I'd be shocked if he was sent to post at 40-1, coming in with one of the best last race Beyers.