Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think people will unload on this horse. You have cocky connections that will be in front of the media all week, a good name, sheet talk, and what else in the race.

I mean, listen, I can't stand the horse, mostly because of the connections, and I won't be using him, but if he runs his race, he will destroy this field, by OPEN lengths. I'll take that risk but his number is absolutely monsterous compared to this field.

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

You don't think that people are going to hear that this horse ran a neg 3 and no one is even close to that? People eat that stuff up

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

You don't think that people are going to hear that this horse ran a neg 3 and no one is even close to that? People eat that stuff up

People who bet based solely on figures will pound him. I think that's a very minor part of the betting public though, even on Derby day.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Joey,what about all the money people just won't bet on the others(because they think BROWN simply has different fuel in his tank.)It's not just that people will play BROWN. You can't really bet heavy against a barn with horses who don't get tired.

[Gander]

Okay, who do you think the people that were going to bet War Pass are going to bet now?

Zito obsessors: Cool Coal Man.
Front runner lovers: Bob Black Jack or Recapture the Glory
Maybe just the best horse trained by the best trainer, Big Brown.

I say those 4 horses are going to take the majority of the cash that was to be bet on War Pass maybe in this order...

1) Big Brown- Logically the best horse trained by the guy with more tricks up his sleeve than a magician.

2) Cool Coal Man- Some people just want Zito to win this badly and dont wouldnt want to be without a win ticket if Zito were to win this race.

3) Bob Black Jack- Hes been the "4th most mentioned California horse", if you will. Gayego and Colonel John are hot, hot, hot in the media right now, but El Galo Malo's stock has plummeted and probably wont even run in the Derby.

4) Recapture the Glory- the least because not many people even know the Illinois Derby is a race.


I think Big Brown goes off 2/1 and Colonel John about 5/1, and guess which one of these I think is the bigger underlay? Yup, Colonel John at 5/1.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the people who bet this way make up a miniscule amount of the win pool.

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Gander

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

Ya Zito and Kid Rock go way back . . .

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

People who bet based solely on figures will pound him. I think that's a very minor part of the betting public though, even on Derby day.

I think that you are underestimating them. They are the dominant factor in most pools.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think that you are underestimating them. They are the dominant factor in most pools.

I would agree. The Derby brings money from the kinds of people who can throw it away like normal people throw away paper towels. A few years back I had the distinction of meeting and hanging out with Kevin and Matt Dillon at the Saratoga racetrack. You should have seen the way these guys threw their money around. I dont even know how you can fit that much money in a wallet or pocket. These guys knew nothing about horse racing but were betting 4-5 K in every race. I told Kevin I liked a horse that happened to be the favorite, and he didnt care that the horse was 9/5. He went up and put 10 grand on him without blinking an eye.
That was Saratoga. Just imagine what Derby Day is like with the rich celebs trying to impress their girls by throwing down huge bets.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think that you are underestimating them. They are the dominant factor in most pools.

Operative word in my post is "solely".

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Operative word in my post is "solely".

There are a lot of speed figure clones out there

[MISTERGEE]

cannon do you ever look at speed figures to help decide where to place your horses and if so which ones?