Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

If they don't see a poor work, at least they get the thrill until he hits the second turn and see he's spinning his wheels. If he went over to CD and floundered, the connections would have all kinds of doubt instead of optimism...dumb reason not to work him there, but it's a reason regardless.

Exactly. The second guessing will be in full force. The truth is that one work over CD isnt nearly as important as it once was. For my own selfish reasons i would like to see him work but I get what Harty is doing.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.

10/1 is a pipe dream, especially now that War Pass is adios. War Pass leaving makes Big Brown probably 9/5 now. War Pass would have been a suckers 8/1 IMO.

[geeker2]

besides all the above...... he is a dual qualifier!!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

10/1 is a pipe dream, especially now that War Pass is adios. War Pass leaving makes Big Brown probably 9/5 now. War Pass would have been a suckers 8/1 IMO.

What is with this? Every time I see someone call Big Brown's odds, it's lower than the previous "estimate". I don't think there's any way he's lower than 5/2. That's still a major underlay though.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What is with this? Every time I see someone call Big Brown's odds, it's lower than the previous "estimate". I don't think there's any way he's lower than 5/2. That's still a major underlay though.

I think people will unload on this horse. You have cocky connections that will be in front of the media all week, a good name, sheet talk, and what else in the race.

I mean, listen, I can't stand the horse, mostly because of the connections, and I won't be using him, but if he runs his race, he will destroy this field, by OPEN lengths. I'll take that risk but his number is absolutely monsterous compared to this field.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think people will unload on this horse. You have cocky connections that will be in front of the media all week, a good name, sheet talk, and what else in the race.

I mean, listen, I can't stand the horse, mostly because of the connections, and I won't be using him, but if he runs his race, he will destroy this field, by OPEN lengths. I'll take that risk but his number is absolutely monsterous compared to this field.

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

You don't think that people are going to hear that this horse ran a neg 3 and no one is even close to that? People eat that stuff up

[SCUDSBROTHER]

There are a lot of trainers in this country.Did these people just happen to end up with the top 3 year old in the country,and the top sprinter in the country? I guess it's possible....Add in the B.C. Turf mile winner.That's kind of odd(the way the horse talent just seemed to cluster like that,huh?)

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Exactly. The second guessing will be in full force. The truth is that one work over CD isnt nearly as important as it once was. For my own selfish reasons i would like to see him work but I get what Harty is doing.

For my purposes, I'd like to see all of them work at Churchill. The horses will either like it or not, and I agree that one work isn't paramount.