Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

He is very live because of

1)the lack of talent in the field
2) his seasoning,
3) his pedigree for dirt
4) right running style for derby
5) and most importantly he appears to be one of the few without any question about the 10f distance.

If he puts in a big work on the churchill strip I would think he would be the horse to beat. I just don't see how you can take less than 5-1 on any horse in this field, especially a horse with 2 career dirt races (big brown) or a horse with no career dirt races (colonel john). I will take Cool Coal Man at a nice price.