War Pass out with fracture

[the_fat_man]

Yet another example of a what will prove to be a popular thread that is not directly about handicapping.

While it's unfortunate that the horse broke down, he wasn't winning the Derby.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Yet another example of a what will prove to be a popular thread that is not directly about handicapping.

While it's unfortunate that the horse broke down, he wasn't winning the Derby.

Most of this board isn't about handicapping. The Paddock isn't Selections, nor Triple Crown Archives. Room for anything related to horse racing at Steve's house.

For the critics of Recapturetheglory who say he is not fast. He has the second fastest dirt beyer and second fastest rag out of all 3yr old dirt efforts.

Big Brown's Best Beyer 106
Recapturetheglory 102.

Big Brown's best Rag 2
Recapturetheglory best rag 4.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

For the critics of Recapturetheglory who say he is not fast. He has the second fastest dirt beyer and second fastest rag out of all 3yr old dirt efforts.

Big Brown's Best Beyer 106
Recapturetheglory 102.

Big Brown's best Rag 2
Recapturetheglory best rag 4.

thanks for bringing these facts to light, its looks like you've really done your research.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

For the critics of Recapturetheglory who say he is not fast. He has the second fastest dirt beyer and second fastest rag out of all 3yr old dirt efforts.

Big Brown's Best Beyer 106
Recapturetheglory 102.

Big Brown's best Rag 2
Recapturetheglory best rag 4.

Listen, the bottom line is that the colt has no chance to win the race and only about a 0.0000001% chance of hitting the board. In a race with very few tosses, he is absolutely one of them.
The colt is 2 for 2 lifetime on the Hawthorne strip and 0 for 4 everywhere else. You can cite all of the BSFs you want too, but with the kind of trip he got in the Illinois Derby, it sure means a lot less than it otherwise would. I hope you know that there is absolutely no way he'll run a 102 going 10f at CD. He'll be lucky to top 90.
At this point I don't think I'll be betting on Big Brown either, but comparing him to Recapturetheglory is a little nutty in my opinion.

[hi_im_god]

illinois derby gets an inflated beyer every year and then the winner takes up space in the churchill gate and somehow turns into a goat when it opens.

this horse isn't war emblem, he's cowtown cat.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

illinois derby gets an inflated beyer every year and then the winner takes up space in the churchill gate and somehow turns into a goat when it opens.

this horse isn't war emblem, he's cowtown cat.

Exactly.
DrugS posted this awhile ago, but I guess it needs to be reposted for some people here.


"The Ill Derby has a history of front end winners producing crazy fast figures.

* Last year, Cowtown Cat went wire-to-wire and was given just a 98 Beyer figure after running a time that suggested he ran significantly faster. BRIS didn't adjust there figure...and had him running faster than Holy Bull ever had on there numbers - he went on to finish 20th in the Derby while having the highest last out BRIS fig in the entire field.

* Two years ago, Sweetnorthersaint sat second less than a length off of pace setter Mr. Triester (who stayed on to finish 2nd) - he put him away, won by 9, got huge figures from all figure makers and was bet to Derby favortisim.

* Three years ago, Greeley's Galazy stalked the pace from up close and won with a 106 Beyer that might have been reduced a little if I recall. He never ran back to it.

* Four years ago, Pollards Vision went wire-to-wire and ran a 107 Beyer. He returned to run 17th beaten 40 lengths in the Derby."

[King Glorious]

I'm not sure why it's so easy for people to remember this about the Illinois Derby.

Anyway, I have read a few people saying that if anyone was Zito's position, they would have done exactly the same with War Pass that Zito did. I don't agree. I was of the belief that something was way wrong with War Pass after the Tampa race. I wouldn't have pressed on to the Wood after that. And even if for some reason I had, after the Wood, I was strong in my opinion that the Derby chase should have ended right there. Yet Zito was continuing on saying it was a day by day thing and that the Derby was still a consideration. I'm not saying Zito is wrong or that I'm right here because he knows the horse better than I do. But from all I was able to see, I think I would have taken a different approach.

Is it redboarding or 20/20 hindsight when you predict a horse will be done and he's done one race later than you predicted?

Originally Posted by miraja2

Exactly.
DrugS posted this awhile ago, but I guess it needs to be reposted for some people here.


"The Ill Derby has a history of front end winners producing crazy fast figures.

* Last year, Cowtown Cat went wire-to-wire and was given just a 98 Beyer figure after running a time that suggested he ran significantly faster. BRIS didn't adjust there figure...and had him running faster than Holy Bull ever had on there numbers - he went on to finish 20th in the Derby while having the highest last out BRIS fig in the entire field.

* Two years ago, Sweetnorthersaint sat second less than a length off of pace setter Mr. Triester (who stayed on to finish 2nd) - he put him away, won by 9, got huge figures from all figure makers and was bet to Derby favortisim.

* Three years ago, Greeley's Galazy stalked the pace from up close and won with a 106 Beyer that might have been reduced a little if I recall. He never ran back to it.

* Four years ago, Pollards Vision went wire-to-wire and ran a 107 Beyer. He returned to run 17th beaten 40 lengths in the Derby."

All of this is meaningless in a different year. This year the 3yr olds are a bunch of slow horses.

The fact those Illinois Derby winners couldn't get an early lead. There was speed in those races. This year there might not be anyone to go with the horse.

I know one Illinois Derby winner that everyone looked past and he ran 1-2-3 along with Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift all way around the track.