Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

agreed. i don't know how to quantify the likelyhood he doesn't handle the surface as anything other than a question mark until he ships in.

you stated it was a gigantic question mark. i took that to mean you don't expect him to handle the surface. your opinion is probably better informed than mine but for my part i'm waiting until i see what he does at the track.

i'm in no way endorsing the horse. i just think labelling "silly" the expectation he could run competetivly was itself silly.

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

see what i mean about the better informed part?

[hi_im_god]

i know there'd be no dirt kicked back in his face but why wouldn't they want to give him a work over the track?

any insight to what the trainer is thinking?

Well I thought he had run on dirt.

All his races have been very consistent.
He looks very relaxed and seems to find
ways not to get into difficult positions. No panic,
very professional. All around solid performer so
far, and more distance is good. Plenty of speed
to set him up it looks like. I think he can handle
being in a number in the pack spots behind the
leaders.

I dont see a more consistent horse.
Except 3 races with Big Brown.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i know there'd be no dirt kicked back in his face but why wouldn't they want to give him a work over the track?

any insight to what the trainer is thinking?

Says he just wants to keep him in same surrounding as long as possible. Probablty thinks that 1 work over track wont make a difference.

[mclem10011]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

Chuck does that make sense, from a trainers POV? Wouldn't you want to see how he works at least once, or eveen just a breeze to see even any signals of how he may handle it on race day?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by mclem10011

Chuck does that make sense, from a trainers POV? Wouldn't you want to see how he works at least once, or eveen just a breeze to see even any signals of how he may handle it on race day?

I see both sides of the street. Say he works so-so? Do you not run?

[mclem10011]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I see both sides of the street. Say he works so-so? Do you not run?

I see your point, but because anything can happen in the race, even if he worked so, so I'd still take a shot barring any injury or sickness.

[Thunder Gulch]

If they don't see a poor work, at least they get the thrill until he hits the second turn and see he's spinning his wheels. If he went over to CD and floundered, the connections would have all kinds of doubt instead of optimism...dumb reason not to work him there, but it's a reason regardless.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

If they don't see a poor work, at least they get the thrill until he hits the second turn and see he's spinning his wheels. If he went over to CD and floundered, the connections would have all kinds of doubt instead of optimism...dumb reason not to work him there, but it's a reason regardless.

Exactly. The second guessing will be in full force. The truth is that one work over CD isnt nearly as important as it once was. For my own selfish reasons i would like to see him work but I get what Harty is doing.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Exactly. The second guessing will be in full force. The truth is that one work over CD isnt nearly as important as it once was. For my own selfish reasons i would like to see him work but I get what Harty is doing.

For my purposes, I'd like to see all of them work at Churchill. The horses will either like it or not, and I agree that one work isn't paramount.