Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

Yeah, that pretty much sums up my thoughts.

[slotdirt]

Is there a must play horse in this Derby? If so, I'm seriously missing something.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, Pyro.

[slotdirt]

My bad. After DrugSy's Pyro tout, is there a must play horse in this particular Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's Mr. DrugSy to you.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

I said in my initial post that seeing how he works might change things. As of now though I don't understand how everyone can be acting like he's a must play horse. I think he needs to prove he belongs on dirt before he is worthy of consideration on any tickets.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

definetly a question mark. not sure i'd call it gigantic.

[sumitas]

I think BBJ will be off the lead until the top of the stretch, then on the lead. a SA box looks good ...depending on conditions...ahhh, chillin with my cali boys until the big week

[hockey2315]

Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory will be battling down the stretch. . . For 19th. . .

[sumitas]

hahahaha...ya never know...
here's the most recent Col John clip on youtube for your viewing pleasure

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuuJibTFXI

and BBJ setting the world record @ 6F and gallopin out strong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qe4_9GGpNP8

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

definetly a question mark. not sure i'd call it gigantic.

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

agreed. i don't know how to quantify the likelyhood he doesn't handle the surface as anything other than a question mark until he ships in.

you stated it was a gigantic question mark. i took that to mean you don't expect him to handle the surface. your opinion is probably better informed than mine but for my part i'm waiting until i see what he does at the track.

i'm in no way endorsing the horse. i just think labelling "silly" the expectation he could run competetivly was itself silly.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

agreed. i don't know how to quantify the likelyhood he doesn't handle the surface as anything other than a question mark until he ships in.

you stated it was a gigantic question mark. i took that to mean you don't expect him to handle the surface. your opinion is probably better informed than mine but for my part i'm waiting until i see what he does at the track.

i'm in no way endorsing the horse. i just think labelling "silly" the expectation he could run competetivly was itself silly.

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

see what i mean about the better informed part?

[mclem10011]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

Chuck does that make sense, from a trainers POV? Wouldn't you want to see how he works at least once, or eveen just a breeze to see even any signals of how he may handle it on race day?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

The whole synthetic/dirt question is THE story of this Derby.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The whole synthetic/dirt question is THE story of this Derby.

Especially since Pyro's connections just stated that if Pyro wins the Derby, he will not go to the BC Classic because it will be on synthetic(someone remind me of the site).

Colonel John is a very conservative safe pick, I believe, without alot of negatives(or positives, for that matter) who might be 6-1. It's a pick for unimaginative handicappers(lol)