4/19-20 (KEE): Lexington; Ben Ali

[Danzig]

big glen

If Samba doesn't take to the surface then expect St. Joe to be all alone. And that's what I'm betting on. Absolutely no speed in the race.

Atoned. Of course. Oh, and Tomcito.

-Sparky

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

If Samba doesn't take to the surface then expect St. Joe to be all alone. And that's what I'm betting on. Absolutely no speed in the race.

you are a brave man in taking any speed horse to wire a race like this at keeneland.

my picks on the record from my blog

http://thehlife.blogspot.com/

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

you are a brave man in taking any speed horse to wire a race like this at keeneland.
]

Didn't you watch the Bluegrass? The front-runner all the way round nearly won, and the winner and third were in the first flight throughout. No deep closers need apply.

[miraja2]

I like Big Glen a little bit, and (a horse I don't think anybody has mentioned) Behindatthebar.
All of Behindatthebar's synthetic starts have been decent, and while he doesn't really seem to be improving that much, his last race - also 8.5 on the syn - was good enough for me to consider him. With the four horses directly inside of him either gunning for the lead or falling way back, I think he stands to get a decent stalker's trip into what I think will be about an average pace, and he might be around at the end. If the price is reasonable I might take a shot with him.

Tomcito's recent lights-out work over this track is somewhat interesting....but then again, he did the same thing over the Gulfstream surface shortly before the Florida Derby.

[eajinabi]

Behindatthebar loves the polytrack. Put a line through his El camino cause it was on dirt. His two wins on Poly were won easily at the jocks were in-hand in both races.

Felon is coming off a maiden win but he romped in that. Will relish the distance and Poly. Maker is at winning at 32% so far and his last blowout workout was probably indication for Maker to enter him today.

Taking a shot here
The Bet:

$20 WPS on Behindatthebar

I will also use both horses in my pick 3s.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Behindatthebar loves the polytrack. Put a line through his El camino cause it was on dirt. His two wins on Poly were won easily at the jocks were in-hand in both races.

Felon is coming off a maiden win but he romped in that. Will relish the distance and Poly. Maker is at winning at 32% so far and his last blowout workout was probably indication for Maker to enter him today.

Taking a shot here
The Bet:

$20 WPS on Behindatthebar

I will also use both horses in my pick 3s.

Congrtas
I had Riley Tucker who was just too slow

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

If Samba doesn't take to the surface then expect St. Joe to be all alone. And that's what I'm betting on. Absolutely no speed in the race.

Huh? Samba Rooster will be sent regardless of how he takes to the surface, and Salute the Sarge and Riley Tucker will be sent from their posts too. Should be plenty of speed.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Huh? Samba Rooster will be sent regardless of how he takes to the surface, and Salute the Sarge and Riley Tucker will be sent from their posts too. Should be plenty of speed.

Salute the Sarge? Uh no. Riley Tucker will sit off the lead. That leaves Samba Rooster and St. Joe. And we all know how Gomez hates going to the lead. He'll probably try and sit Samba off the pace as well.

The odds I'll get are worth it in a race full of plodders.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Salute the Sarge? Uh no. Riley Tucker will sit off the lead. That leaves Samba Rooster and St. Joe. And we all know how Gomez hates going to the lead. He'll probably try and sit Samba off the pace as well.

The odds I'll get are worth it in a race full of plodders.

Salute the Sarge couldn't stay far enough off the lead to not die in the BC Juvenile, he's coming out of a six-furlong race and he's gotta gun to avoid being compromised by the two speeds to his outside. Why wouldn't he be close to the pace? Last time Riley Tucker was in blinkers, he didn't sit off the lead, and he hasn't really done it since except for in the Southwest. And I don't care if Gomez hates going to the lead, he's on a one-dimensional speed horse, what else is he going to do? Pretty sure the fractions will be fast.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Salute the Sarge couldn't stay far enough off the lead to not die in the BC Juvenile, he's coming out of a six-furlong race and he's gotta gun to avoid being compromised by the two speeds to his outside. Why wouldn't he be close to the pace? Last time Riley Tucker was in blinkers, he didn't sit off the lead, and he hasn't really done it since except for in the Southwest. And I don't care if Gomez hates going to the lead, he's on a one-dimensional speed horse, what else is he going to do? Pretty sure the fractions will be fast.

Salute the Sarge won't be within 3 lengths of St. Joe at the half. He's too slow. I believe his best races are behind him and he's an auto-toss in this one.

Riley Tucker? He's too slow as well. Plus you've got John R. in the saddle. Good luck with that one. If Prado couldn't get him in the winners circle in that horrendous Transylvania, then Jesus Christ wouldn't be able to in this race.

The only horse that could challenge is Samba Rooster. But Gomez nuts up on speed horses AND he'll be bet down. Pass.

I'm looking for value in a race full of pigs. St. Joe will be 12-1 or higher.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Salute the Sarge won't be within 3 lengths of St. Joe at the half. He's too slow. I believe his best races are behind him and he's an auto-toss in this one.

Riley Tucker? He's too slow as well. Plus you've got John R. in the saddle. Good luck with that one. If Prado couldn't get him in the winners circle in that horrendous Transylvania, then Jesus Christ wouldn't be able to in this race.

The only horse that could challenge is Samba Rooster. But Gomez nuts up on speed horses AND he'll be bet down. Pass.

I'm looking for value in a race full of pigs. St. Joe will be 12-1 or higher.

I'm not saying any of those horses are winners, and I'm not faulting you for looking for value. It's a wide open race. Personally I hate all four of the horses you mentioned. I just think the fractions are going to be really quick.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Salute the Sarge? Uh no. Riley Tucker will sit off the lead. That leaves Samba Rooster and St. Joe. And we all know how Gomez hates going to the lead. He'll probably try and sit Samba off the pace as well.

The odds I'll get are worth it in a race full of plodders.

I've liked St Joe since his maiden win- but I don't think he can get this distance. Think he's better suited at 6-7f, would have been a force in the Derby Trial next Saturday.

Originally Posted by philcski

I've liked St Joe since his maiden win- but I don't think he can get this distance. Think he's better suited at 6-7f, would have been a force in the Derby Trial next Saturday.

That's one of the big questions is distance limitations. What I'm most concerned about is if Mena can get him to relax on the lead. If he can relax and handle a little pressure, then he'll wire this field.

Derby Trial? Looks like a poly specialist to me.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've liked St Joe since his maiden win- but I don't think he can get this distance. Think he's better suited at 6-7f, would have been a force in the Derby Trial next Saturday.

Samba Rooster is a complete unknown on Poly- thus I like St. Joe in here at a price, the distance and the formerly mentioned horse will be his obstacles as both like to run on the pace. Alot of these have had their chances and they don't really excite me.

I'm also interested in how Salute the Sarge will race, he should improve 2nd time off the layoff.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

If Samba doesn't take to the surface then expect St. Joe to be all alone. And that's what I'm betting on. Absolutely no speed in the race.

No speed, eh?

Before you go apeshit, I'm just breaking balls.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No speed, eh?

Before you go apeshit, I'm just breaking balls.

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

CP, it looks like his instructions if you ask me. Baffert is addicted to speed, and the track was playing to speed.

The 45 comment is exactly what I thought when I saw the fractions.....Ran real well to hold that long with those fractions....

[LARHAGE]

Samba Rooster is a head case, on the ESPN telecast Jeannine Edwards said she talked to Gomez and he was told the horse was plain mean and you couldn't use a whip, and that the horse had to think he was running off with you or he plain wouldn't run, he couldn't take hold of him at all, so considering he had no whip, the horse was a runaway, and he was going 2 turns for the first time on a new surface it's hard to not be impressed with that effort!