Is Haskin joking?

[CSC]

Doesn't last yrs crop of 3yr olds Curlin, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday tower over the 2008 crop at their same stage of development this yr?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by CSC

Doesn't last yrs crop of 3yr olds Curlin, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday tower over the 2008 crop at their same stage of development this yr?

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

As I said above I have absolutely no idea who will be the best horse of this crop or on the 1st week of May. This year is an immense puzzle to me. I'm just mystified. The only thing concrete thing I can go on is the report by track staff on the workouts. Since I am relatively a small player I can live with that. But also the best horse does not always win the derby, as we know know Curlin is head and shoulders the best horse of the crop in 2007, Street Sense got the trip and was a CD horse for the course. Since very few have run over the strip at CD and alot of these are coming in off poly/cushion preps. This race for me is not a race I am going to invest alot of money on.

But I agree with you, any of the top 3 of last year probably would crush...I hate that word as it is over dramatic but probably crush the 2008 field.

[sumitas]

the Churchill strip has been much maligned. a dirt horse like High Yield never fired. countless others never did either. 2006 you had Sharp Humor who was in great position around the first turn. then he broke his knee cap - end of career. ya never know on that track but it's the same for all...

[slotdirt]

^^^^ I think I need another Wilbury for interpreting purposes.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by sumitas

the Churchill strip has been much maligned. a dirt horse like High Yield never fired. countless others never did either. 2006 you had Sharp Humor who was in great position around the first turn. then he broke his knee cap - end of career. ya never know on that track but it's the same for all...

Eddie D said Hollywood Wildcat didn't handle it in the BC Distaff when she returned as defending champion. Reportedly it is an oval that not all horses can handle.

[slotdirt]

The funny part is someone just corrected him - yesterday, I think - on how Sharp Humor actually raced after the Derby, thus not ending his career.

[Cannon Shell]

Was Curlin heads and shoulders above the rest of his three year old crop? He ran 3rd in the Derby, won the Preakness by a head, got beat by a filly in the Belmont, lost in the Haskell, won a subpar GC Gold Cup by a nose and then won the BC Classic impressively. He may have been the best 3 yo but he was hardly a standout as he ran in 4 grade 1's for 3yo's and won 1 of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He was clearly the overall standout, even going into the Breeders Cup Classic where he went off at 4.4/1 odds - yes - no question.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Was Curlin heads and shoulders above the rest of his three year old crop? He ran 3rd in the Derby, won the Preakness by a head, got beat by a filly in the Belmont, lost in the Haskell, won a subpar GC Gold Cup by a nose and then won the BC Classic impressively. He may have been the best 3 yo but he was hardly a standout as he ran in 4 grade 1's for 3yo's and won 1 of them.

I can see your point, but in my opinion he is head and shoulders the best horse of the crop based on what he did in the BC Classic. He certainly is the most talented horse of the class while Rags, Street S and AGS have all been retired. He's shown his versatilty by being able to handle most tracks and his durabilty by still racing today.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Was Curlin heads and shoulders above the rest of his three year old crop? He ran 3rd in the Derby, won the Preakness by a head, got beat by a filly in the Belmont, lost in the Haskell, won a subpar GC Gold Cup by a nose and then won the BC Classic impressively. He may have been the best 3 yo but he was hardly a standout as he ran in 4 grade 1's for 3yo's and won 1 of them.

I disagree, by the end of the year he was decisively better than the other 3 yo's. His last three races to me clearly show Curlin as the standout of his class. Street Sense and Hard Spun plateaued, Curlin kept raising his game.
you say the Gold Cup was subpar, but he did beat the best older horse going at the time and the rest of the field was left in the dust and that performance earned him a figure better than anything Hard Spun or Street Sense earned all year. His Classic win said it all really.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

This I totally agree with. Most years, a horse with Big Brown's lack of experience and conditioning would have very little hope of hitting the board in the derby. But against this year's group? Uou cannot toss a horse with as much talent as Big Brown. He's really the only "wow" type talent that we've seen so far. Pyro and Colonel John have shown glimpses, but Big Brown hasn't shown a chink in his armour in the 3 races he's ran in.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

This I totally agree with. Most years, a horse with Big Brown's lack of experience and conditioning would have very little hope of hitting the board in the derby. But against this year's group? Uou cannot toss a horse with as much talent as Big Brown. He's really the only "wow" type talent that we've seen so far. Pyro and Colonel John have shown glimpses, but Big Brown hasn't shown a chink in his armour in the 3 races he's ran in.

You dont think coming down the stretch like he was running from an alligator as a chink in the armor, and also the fact that he has only three starts after a performance like he had at Toga is a problem?

Think about this, if his first race back wasn't rained off the turf, this horse wouldn't have even been considered for the Florida Derby. Dutrow lucked out here and while his race was impressive last time, what did he beat down in Florida? Gulfstream racing has been putrid this winter, and probably will be so for the next couple years. I am downgrading him based on that fact, plus the fact he ran a top that is absolutely HUGE for a 3 year old with obvious issues.

He can bounce to the moon and still win, but for me, I have alot of negatives on him (Distance, pedigree, sheet, lack of racing, running style), and few positives (power number last out).

I toss a horse like this 10 times out of 10. And at 2/1, with 19 other hilarious options, makes it every more worthwhile.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Scav

I toss a horse like this 10 times out of 10. And at 2/1, with 19 other hilarious options, makes it every more worthwhile.

Classic line, Scav. Well done.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I don't think that Big Brown will be near 2-1 on Derby day. Actually, I have a feeling that people are going to get cold feet about him on that day. Unless there are unusual workouts by him or Colonel John, I don't think that he'll be favored. Colonel John will be favored. And I'm thinking about 5-1 at that, with BB just in behind him.

........ i think he will be one of the biggest favorites we have seen in a while. whatever, if he loses its just another race for me to crumble up my tote. i think its a lock b.b / pyro exacta ( wow, that should pay alot )

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Are you talking an Arazi-like favorite (.90) or more along the lines of Fusaichi Pegasus (2.30)?

...... i forgot about arazi......... my buddy put 1 dime on him and stormed out of the casino for the rest of the day prob F.P

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Big Brown will be the favorite - of this I have no doubt.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Are you talking an Arazi-like favorite (.90) or more along the lines of Fusaichi Pegasus (2.30)?

When did they eliminate a field bet with 14 entries? I think it was right after FP, give or take a year. The days of a .90 favorite are likely gone with 20 seperate entries. I think BB will go off in the 3-1 range when it's said and done.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I don't think that Big Brown will be near 2-1 on Derby day. Actually, I have a feeling that people are going to get cold feet about him on that day. Unless there are unusual workouts by him or Colonel John, I don't think that he'll be favored. Colonel John will be favored. And I'm thinking about 5-1 at that, with BB just in behind him.

You are out of your damn mind if you think BB is going to be 5/1. One good work out of him and he is easily 2/1, even with medicore works, he is 3/1