Pricing the Derby

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

Absolutely not... Empire Maker (foot and all) would be 3/2 against this group. 2003 was actually a pretty good field, off the top of my head their prep achievements-
* Empire Maker won the Fl Derby & Wood in impressive fasion, with 110+ Beyers
* Funny Cide had shown a lot at 2, ran well while wide in La & Fl, before a big run in the Wood with a 109 Beyer
* Peace Rules had won 3 graded stakes already with 105+ Beyers
* Buddy Gil won the SA Derby with a 105+ Beyer
* Ten Most Wanted ran a huge race in the Ill Derby with a 105+ Beyer
* Indian Express ran a big 2nd in the SA Derby
* Atswhatimtalknbout was everyone's wiseguy horse with his crazy closing rushes
* Scrimshaw finished 3rd in Calfornia and won the Lexington with a 107 (i think) Beyer

So the top 5 I listed would DEFINITELY be favored over everyone in this year's KY Derby, save Big Brown. The next 3 would have been no worse than the 2nd or 3rd choice.

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

Disagree. I have never seen a worse field than this- 1993 was close though. 2003's field absolutely LAYS OVER this one.