Pricing the Derby

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

bellamy road went off at 5-2 so you could be right.

i had to look that up as i didn't remember his odds being so low.