draw a line through it

ArlJim78 · #1 04-12-2008, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Yeah, except for Big Brown.

With BB now the likely favorite, the one thing I can definately say about my Derby tickets at this point is that he will not be in the top two spots. He is the very definition of a vulnerable favorite.

very true, he's vulnerable. but on the other hand he's turned in the most impressive performances of any of them.

2Hot4TV · #2 04-12-2008, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

very true, he's vulnerable. but on the other hand he's turned in the most impressive performances of any of them.

and has every right to improve off of his inexperiance.

#3 04-12-2008, 09:03 PM

I wasn't using him in the derby anyways. Sucker bet that'll be crushed in the exotics.

sumitas · #4 04-12-2008, 09:22 PM

i'm drawing a line through this thread

...the derby appears to be wide open with cases to be made for many of the starters.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #5 04-12-2008, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

very true, he's vulnerable. but on the other hand he's turned in the most impressive performances of any of them.

So did Bellamy Road a few years back...remember where he finished.

Danzig · #6 04-12-2008, 11:17 PM

seems most horses have a performance that is inexplicable. colonel john seems strongest from the west-but to be perfectly honest, i don't want to see a awt horse win the derby. i'm sure someone(s) will jump on me for that, but like i said, i'm being honest-and that's my feeling on it.
doesn't mean it won't happen. i also don't want to see a horse with less lifetime starts then i have fingers on one hand win it-i don't want the lightly raced horse to become even more of a trend.

many of the horses have a head scratcher. or maybe not. perhaps war pass' rotten clunker, and his only out of the money finish, was due to a change in surface. same could be said of pyro today, who has done nothing wrong in much of his career. so what changed? easy to say in his case. dirt to poly according to the talking heads on tv said that dirt to poly is much more difficult then vice versa. gayego and sierra sunset bear that out, maybe yankee bravo as well to be honest. he went poly to dirt, and finished third to pyro. then he goes back to poly and ran his worst race ever in the santa anita derby.

interesting derby coming up. i wonder if giacomo will lose his title of 'worst derby winner ever'? well, not ever-i still think gato del sol was worse, but memories for some here are short.

whodey17 · #7 04-12-2008, 11:40 PM

Most years I can narrow who I like to 3-5 horses before Derby day. This year I have no clue. They all seem to be pretty even. Who knows how Colonel John will run on dirt, who knows if War Pass gets gutty and goes wire to wire and who knows who is any good. Should make for an exciting Derby.

Cajungator26 · #8 04-13-2008, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodey17

Most years I can narrow who I like to 3-5 horses before Derby day. This year I have no clue. They all seem to be pretty even. Who knows how Colonel John will run on dirt, who knows if War Pass gets gutty and goes wire to wire and who knows who is any good. Should make for an exciting Derby.

Hey ... if you get a chance, will you let us know what that psychic lady has to say?

2Hot4TV · #9 04-13-2008, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hey ... if you get a chance, will you let us know what that psychic lady has to say?

I see the future being delivered in a truck,,,,, a UPS truck,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,No NO it's Big Brown weaving like a drunken sailor to win by 1 1/2.

SOREHOOF · #10 04-13-2008, 10:18 AM

I drew a line through the Bluegrass Stakes when it was a speed track, and I'll draw a line through it now. Pyro was not my derby horse before and I don't think any less of him now. Contender.

whodey17 · #11 04-13-2008, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hey ... if you get a chance, will you let us know what that psychic lady has to say?

I sure will Cajun. The Arabian Nights party is always a favorite of mine.

Cajungator26 · #12 04-13-2008, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodey17

I sure will Cajun. The Arabian Nights party is always a favorite of mine.

Thanks, man. It's always fun to hear about what she has to say.

Pedigree Ann · #13 04-13-2008, 03:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

interesting derby coming up. i wonder if giacomo will lose his title of 'worst derby winner ever'? well, not ever-i still think gato del sol was worse, but memories for some here are short.

Actually, I would nominate Dust Commander and Proud Clarion. And how about Cannonade and Lil E. Tee? Go for Gin didn't do much after the Derby, either. Kauai King did win the Derby and the Preakness, and he wasn't much, either, which was displayed when he ran into Buckpasser, the year's best 3yo.

Danzig · #14 04-13-2008, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Actually, I would nominate Dust Commander and Proud Clarion. And how about Cannonade and Lil E. Tee? Go for Gin didn't do much after the Derby, either. Kauai King did win the Derby and the Preakness, and he wasn't much, either, which was displayed when he ran into Buckpasser, the year's best 3yo.

all those you mentioned had multiple wins in graded races, placings as well. some at 2 and 3, some at 3 and 4.
proud clarion and gato del sol have remarkably similar records, but if i had to choose the worst of them, i'd stick with gato del sol. and in lil e tees defense, he wasn't that bad really. not very good, but better than most give him credit for.

At 3 Won Jim Beam S.(G2), Kentucky Derby(G1)
2nd Arkansas Derby(G2)
3rd Southwest S.

At 4 Won Razorback H.(G2)
2nd Oaklawn H.(G1)

lostcode · #15 04-13-2008, 08:45 AM

Why if Pyro wins the race yesterday he is a supestar. When he loses we have to draw a line through the race? I guess I don't see the excitement in cashing $4.00 tickets. I have enjoyed the last 6 triple crown races, 6 races and 6 different winners and Barbaro paying $14.00, Jazil $18.00, Bernadini $14.00, Street Sense $10, Rags to Riches $10.00.

I want 3 more horses to win the 3 races this year, I want to pick one of the 3 races correctly and make money.

Danzig · #16 04-13-2008, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why if Pyro wins the race yesterday he is a supestar. When he loses we have to draw a line through the race? I guess I don't see the excitement in cashing $4.00 tickets. I have enjoyed the last 6 triple crown races, 6 races and 6 different winners and Barbaro paying $14.00, Jazil $18.00, Bernadini $14.00, Street Sense $10, Rags to Riches $10.00.

I want 3 more horses to win the 3 races this year, I want to pick one of the 3 races correctly and make money.

do you think the race yesterday in any way will influence your betting strategy in a few weeks? will you be playing monba or cowboy cal at all? and even if pyro had won yesterday, the 20 horse field pretty much guarantees payoffs such as what you put above.

ateamstupid · #17 04-13-2008, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why if Pyro wins the race yesterday he is a supestar. When he loses we have to draw a line through the race? I guess I don't see the excitement in cashing $4.00 tickets. I have enjoyed the last 6 triple crown races, 6 races and 6 different winners and Barbaro paying $14.00, Jazil $18.00, Bernadini $14.00, Street Sense $10, Rags to Riches $10.00.

I want 3 more horses to win the 3 races this year, I want to pick one of the 3 races correctly and make money.

$4 tickets? Pyro's gonna be like 7 or 8-1 now dude.

Oh, and Bernardini payed $27.80, guy..