Ky Derby matchups

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

can you pm, and please tell me why the hate for court vision, help me understand, because i dont get it.

3rd off the layoff
because of his 2 clunk up thirds, he goes from a top 3 derby horse on everyones list, 2 a giant price, ensuring value
mott
gomez
third off the layoff
been in battles
won the remsen the right way, even though it was slow, he was in hand late
won at churchill
third off the layoff

i dont know, i dont see why me liking him is so crazy....

it's not hate, and you shouldn't take it personally if no one else sees what you do in the horse. if you like him, bet him. no big deal. but i doubt you'll talk anyone else into thinking court vision has a shot in the derby.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's not hate, and you shouldn't take it personally if no one else sees what you do in the horse. if you like him, bet him. no big deal. but i doubt you'll talk anyone else into thinking court vision has a shot in the derby.

i know, and i am going to bet him, but really does he look nearly as impossible as giacomo did ?

[JJP]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i know, and i am going to bet him, but really does he look nearly as impossible as giacomo did ?

Yes. Giacomo looked better than Court Vision does. In Giacomo's Santa Anita Derby, speed ran 1-2-3 around the track and he basically was the only one who made up any ground. Court Vision had the perfect pace scenario in the Wood and still couldn't get the job done. I thought he'd run a big race last Saturday and not firing under optimal circumstances is a huge negative. I guess at a big enough price I could make a case for him running 3rd or 4th if we get the usual ginormous pace but even that may be a stretch. Why not point the horse for other 3YO races like the Ohio Derby?

[Thunder Gulch]

I've been a Court Vision fan and keep making excuses for him, but I'm starting to get in line with those who think he's just too slow to win. I kept telling myself that he was going to run an Invisible Ink type of race that got him a share. However, he should have had things all his way with the pace on Saturday. That said, I'd still give him a chance to clunk up past tired horses for 3rd or 4th because he does run late and he has won at Churchill, not to mention Bill Mott.

[Thunder Gulch]

Interesting that the future pool has BigBrown at 5/2 and Pyro at 5/1, while a sharp bookmaker has Pyro as a -125 favorite in the matchup.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Interesting that the future pool has BigBrown at 5/2 and Pyro at 5/1, while a sharp bookmaker has Pyro as a -125 favorite in the matchup.

You don't have to win the race to win the matchup. The thinking is that if Big Brown starts to back up, he may back up in a hurry, whereas Pyro will be doing his best running late.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by JJP

You don't have to win the race to win the matchup. The thinking is that if Big Brown starts to back up, he may back up in a hurry, whereas Pyro will be doing his best running late.

That's what happens in pricing some matchups and it's an important point to remember. But in this case, TheGreek DOES like Pyro's chances to win better than Big Brown's. They are offering 4.65 to 1 on Big Brown but just 4.05 to 1 on Pyro.

--Dunbar