I've Seen All I Need To See With Big Brown

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I hope this was a joke

The time? NO

[Thunder Gulch]

It wasn't any better than Curlin's final prep last year, and it's way too early to say he can touch that one...by the way, Curlin was 3rd in the Derby. Yes, it was impressive any way you slice it, but the question isn't how good it was, the question is how good will the next one be under different circumstances.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by MisterB

The time? NO

So you're comparing times from races two years apart? That's always a good idea. . .

[ELA]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

So you're comparing times from races two years apart? That's always a good idea. . .

Good point. That's an exercise in futility. However, I can certainly understand comparing the two -- respectively -- to every other race on the card, the weather, bias, etc. and so on, right down the line. Whether or not that gives you some "substance" of comparison I guess would be in the eye of the beholder.

I was extremely high on Curlin from day one and thought he would be a factor in the Derby. I was worried about "too much too soon" and whether or not he had the seasoning, experience, and what was needed for a Triple Crown campaign; but with each successive start that had to be less and less of a concern. I liked him in the Derby, very much. I loved him in the Preakness. The Belmont to me is somewhat enigmatic so let's forget that for the time being.

For whatever reasons, I have been extremely high on Big Brown from the moment I saw him break his maiden at the Spa. Now, I don't know, maybe this is different. Sure, he raced once as a two year old. But if his "problems" are exclusively his feet, great, but if not . . . Like I said, I don't know. People had similar discussions about Empire Maker, but he wasn't sound from almost day one, and we all know how that story goes.

To me, Big Brown is just more puzzling than Curlin and that just makes me less strong and confident. He could be the next ___fill in the blank___. I'd love to see it. On the other hand . . . Anyway, the verdict is still out.

Eric

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ELA

For whatever reasons, I have been extremely high on Big Brown from the moment I saw him break his maiden at the Spa.

I am going to guess the reason had something to do with him winning his debut that day by double digit lengths at 17/1 odds for a trainer who wins with a first time starter once every blue moon?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I am going to guess the reason had something to do with him winning his debut that day by double digit lengths at 17/1 odds for a trainer who wins with a first time starter once every blue moon?

DING DING DING

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

So you're comparing times from races two years apart? That's always a good idea. . .

thats great. let him. that horse will be 5-2 if he makes the gate, maybe less. with people like this and the ones that bet once a year he may be lower. i for one am willing to bet against. that wasn't exactly a stellar group he beat. i never get worked up about horses like that until they beat the real contenders. three races then 1 1/4 mile against seasoned rivals. not saying he can't but he probably won't .

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

thats great. let him. that horse will be 5-2 if he makes the gate, maybe less. with people like this and the ones that bet once a year he may be lower. i for one am willing to bet against. that wasn't exactly a stellar group he beat. i never get worked up about horses like that until they beat the real contenders. three races then 1 1/4 mile against seasoned rivals. not saying he can't but he probably won't .

What "real contenders" are there besides Pyro and War Pass?

[sdjcom]

Tell Me What 3 Yr Old Has Beat Any Real Contenders? They Have All
Ran Against Only 3 Yr Old In These Preps For Only 3yr Olds. Duhhh!

[sdjcom]

I Thought This Was A Web Site To Talk Horses, But Everybody Complains About My Typing And Has Smart-ass Remarks,well Most
Of You Just Want To Play On A Web Site,you're Not Really Interested About Betting And Making A Few Bucks You're Kids With
A Joy Stick Later Duuuuuuuuuuuuuudes.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by sdjcom

I Thought This Was A Web Site To Talk Horses, But Everybody Complains About My Typing And Has Smart-ass Remarks,well Most
Of You Just Want To Play On A Web Site,you're Not Really Interested About Betting And Making A Few Bucks You're Kids With
A Joy Stick Later Duuuuuuuuuuuuuudes.

Pretty thin skinned tonight. Stick around and you find that we can bet the bucks with the best of players. I'm small time and wager about $1500 a month and am willing to share my picks with anybody.

[Gander]

Big Brown romps in the Derby. He towers over anyone else. I have watched a pretty weak crop of 3 year olds crawl home in a bunch of boring preps for the last 2 months and have seen all I need to see. This horse is the goods and so much reminds me of Saint Liam. I think we are looking at a potential triple crown winner too.
He'll sit right off Bob Black Jack and open up by as many as Prado wants to
If you can get 3/1 on him on Derby Day, dont make another bet all day long.

[MaTH716]

I think that the horse ran very well in the Fla Derby and has tremendous potential, but I will probably toss him in the derby. My reasons are, besides the post in the Fla. derby (where he broke sharply and go to the front anyway) he has had 3 pretty clean perfect trips. Now he will be in a field of 20, (at a short price) and probably have to deal with some sort of adversity somewhere. The most important thing for me is that I think that there will be a lot of pace in the race. It seems that even if BB doesn't need the lead, he still wants to be up front. I am hoping War Pass and horses like Bob Black Jack run and BB gets stuck up front in or near a speed duel. Plus would it be possible that trainers like Assmussen and Pletcher try to backdoor other speed horses into the race through the Coolmore or another late prep? There is a chance that he is just a freak, but I am not taking him at a short price in his 4th career start.

[rbain0902]

What if Big Brown and War Pass (maybe also Bob Black Jack, etc.) get hooked up in speed duel and then Pyro or Denis of Cork picks up pieces? I am aware that BB has shown some ability to rate, and obviously post positions could play a big role here, but I can definitely picture this scenario coming to pass.