3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Phil, it's a 16% takeout. Same as race day. Just like on race day, some horses will be overhyped and some will be overlooked. And some people are kind enough to toss money in the future pool even though the horse they are betting on will run before the pool closes. (How much will be bet on War Pass, El Gato Malo, et al before they race this weekend?!) That doesn't happen on race day. Some bets are probably going to have value. All the usual complaints (horses might not make it into the starting gate, etc) don't change the underlying vig. If you truly think no individual horse has value, then "all others" would likely have value.

--Dunbar