3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

miraja2 · #1 03-26-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

The Indomitable DrugS · #2 03-26-2008, 04:33 PM

Zito's runners caught a break.

Cool Coal Man got post 1 in the 12 runner Fountain Of Youth and worked out a perfect trip.

For the Florida Derby, Zito runners draw posts 1 and 3.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #3 03-26-2008, 06:56 PM

If this was a normal horse, I would say that he had no chance based on the data. However, there is nothing in this field that I think is good enough in this particular spot to beat this horse despite the bad post...he is much faster out of the gate than the majority of these, and should be able to establish a descent position going into the first turn. This horse also does not need the lead as he showed in his last. He earned a 104 BSF last out (we know what the rest of the field's figures look like) and will only get better. He is bred to run all day long. This is one of those races that you sit back, enjoy, and hope the favorite wins so that you can bet against him in the Derby.

golfer · #4 03-26-2008, 07:22 PM

Regarding Big Brown and the 12 post, from drf.com:

"I like it," he said via telephone. "He's not going to get in trouble in the race. As long as he breaks good, I think it's going to be to our advantage. It eliminates any chance of him getting into trouble. He'll get a clean trip, which is half the battle going in.

"Look, I wish he was outside in a seven-horse field, but we're going to take it. We're not going to cry. We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe."