3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

Bobby Fischer · #1 03-26-2008, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Elysium Fields settle and relax just fine last time?

As for the numbers, all I have is this year. So far this year, posts 11 and 12 are 0 for 8. Interesting though is posts 6-12 are 2 for 79 this season. Of those races, posts 6 and 7 had one victory each. So for the season posts 8-12 are 0 for 36.

I thought he really had to muscle his way into position early, and never really relaxed as much as you would like. Kind of wanted to keep making headway all the way around to the lead. He has the excuse of the outside post, &he relaxed pretty well for being asked early, but the derby is going to throw the same kind of pressure at him or worse. I'd like to see even more patience here.

The stats are big. and they make sense. you get 11 seconds run up from the gate to the turn. You don't have time to swing behind, and you can't clear. You pretty much have to get forwardly placed,take a little contact and be happy with about 5 wide.

Big Brown fits those requirements, but we've only seen 2 races. He may be great he may be good , he may be too fragile.

How much does that little burst and being 5 wide cost a Big Brown in terms of lengths when compared with his rivals? 5 lengths? 8 lengths?

Bobby Fischer · #2 03-29-2008, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Big Brown fits those requirements, but we've only seen 2 races. He may be great he may be good , he may be too fragile.

How much does that little burst and being 5 wide cost a Big Brown in terms of lengths when compared with his rivals? 5 lengths? 8 lengths?

and what

fpsoxfan · #3 03-29-2008, 05:58 PM

Some people will have crow on the menu tonight! One of them will be me.

Bobby Fischer · #4 03-29-2008, 06:02 PM

well he was a heavy fav.
The public had no idea what he was up against. I feel like i did a good job of weighing track dynamics in thinking he had a chance to buck the trend, but really i was backing a heavy fav....

oddly those who took the "logical" approach were in the minority outside the internet...

#5 03-29-2008, 06:15 PM

Must've been a dime or more on the show.

Bobby Fischer · #6 03-29-2008, 06:25 PM

he paid $22.00 to win on Derby Trails!

miraja2 · #7 03-29-2008, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Some people will have crow on the menu tonight! One of them will be me.

Why will people be eating crow? I don't want to take the time to read through this whole thread again, but I don't remember very many people bashing the horse. I don't think anybody said that he didn't have a chance to win.
Some of us just didn't think he was a particularly good wager in this race. It turns out he was perhaps better than we thought he was, but I don't think anybody really knocked the horse.

Cajungator26 · #8 03-29-2008, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Why will people be eating crow? I don't want to take the time to read through this whole thread again, but I don't remember very many people bashing the horse. I don't think anybody said that he didn't have a chance to win.
Some of us just didn't think he was a particularly good wager in this race. It turns out he was perhaps better than we thought he was, but I don't think anybody really knocked the horse.

Can't remember, but I think I was one who said he had no shot based upon his post. I'll eat crow for dinner... why not? Nothing better to eat around here.

fpsoxfan · #9 03-30-2008, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Why will people be eating crow? I don't want to take the time to read through this whole thread again, but I don't remember very many people bashing the horse. I don't think anybody said that he didn't have a chance to win.
Some of us just didn't think he was a particularly good wager in this race. It turns out he was perhaps better than we thought he was, but I don't think anybody really knocked the horse.

You really should have taken the time to re-read the thread. In fact I've re-read my own post about 10 times and not once in those 15 words did I mention the word bash. The fact of the matter is that if you re-read the thread, which obviously you didn't, many people thought he would have no chance to win from that post. I for one (although I didn't post it on here) felt the same way.

miraja2 · #10 03-30-2008, 10:52 AM

Okay, I STILL don't want to read the whole thread again but I'll take your word for it and stand corrected. Maybe some people did think he had "no shot."
I honestly don't know how they could have thought that about a horse that did what he did in his first two lifetime starts......but oh well. My basic point was that I think MOST of the people that didn't like him because of his post were well aware that the horse might be capable of doing something like this, but given the odds we chose to take a stand against him. There is no reason to eat crow for that.

Also, you re-read your own post ten times? Sounds like an exciting weekend you've got going on there!

fpsoxfan · #11 03-30-2008, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Okay, I STILL don't want to read the whole thread again but I'll take your word for it and stand corrected. Maybe some people did think he had "no shot."
I honestly don't know how they could have thought that about a horse that did what he did in his first two lifetime starts......but oh well. My basic point was that I think MOST of the people that didn't like him because of his post were well aware that the horse might be capable of doing something like this, but given the odds we chose to take a stand against him. There is no reason to eat crow for that.

Also, you re-read your own post ten times? Sounds like an exciting weekend you've got going on there!

Oh My.

ArlJim78 · #12 03-30-2008, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

You really should have taken the time to re-read the thread. In fact I've re-read my own post about 10 times and not once in those 15 words did I mention the word bash. The fact of the matter is that if you re-read the thread, which obviously you didn't, many people thought he would have no chance to win from that post. I for one (although I didn't post it on here) felt the same way.

stating the fact that the post was a big hurdle and therefore deciding to take a stand against, is not the same thing as saying he had no chance.
I personally decided not to play him for the combined reasons (low odds, bad post, third start in GR1, etc), but never did I consider that he had NO chance. its never that black and white.

fpsoxfan · #13 03-30-2008, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

stating the fact that the post was a big hurdle and therefore deciding to take a stand against, is not the same thing as saying he had no chance.
I personally decided not to play him for the combined reasons (low odds, bad post, third start in GR1, etc), but never did I consider that he had NO chance. its never that black and white.

I really don't want to get into a battle of semantics but some people said No Chance. Can we just leave it at that. I really didn't think people would get there feelings so hurt over a post that was meant to just bust some chops, including my own. If I really thought the horse could win, I would've won a lot of money regardless of his odds. I keyed him under Eslyium Fields and Smooth Air.