3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

sumitas · #1 03-26-2008, 01:39 PM

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

SniperSB23 · #2 03-26-2008, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

philcski · #3 03-26-2008, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I've heard worse ideas.

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

SniperSB23 · #4 03-26-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I'd consider the same with Face the Cat as well. Hawthorne is always a possibility too.

Scav · #5 03-26-2008, 02:32 PM

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

ateamstupid · #6 03-26-2008, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

miraja2 · #7 03-26-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

The Indomitable DrugS · #8 03-26-2008, 04:33 PM

Zito's runners caught a break.

Cool Coal Man got post 1 in the 12 runner Fountain Of Youth and worked out a perfect trip.

For the Florida Derby, Zito runners draw posts 1 and 3.

Bobby Fischer · #9 03-26-2008, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I actually agree. I think BB could win here, but he will have to spot his rivals 5-8. If any of them are game they are asking a ton of effort from Big Brown. He won both races on talent alone, and has suffered hooves. You want him to peak in Ky.