3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He'll really have to be the best Desormeaux has ever ridden to win from there.

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

Unless Big Brown is the 2nd coming of Barbaro, he has no chance from that post.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Unless Big Brown is the 2nd coming of Barbaro, he has no chance from that post.

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

Who in that race had a distinguished career? Sunriver? I don't have the PPs handy but I don't think there was much in that race and Barbaro ran his heart out to barely do it and he was from the 10th post. BB is drawing even worse.

I wasn't going to bet Big Brown before the draw and I certainly am not going to after. He could end up being the best horse in this field...although I doubt it...but he isn't winning.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Who behind Barbaro in the Florida Derby had a distinguished career?

As for meaningful data. I'm not sure what could be more meaningful than the fact that this is now the 4th meet with the renovated track and NO ONE has won from that post. No one, as in 0% winners from there. Couple that with the fact he'll be an overpriced favorite off a turf race against dogs and an off the turf race against more dogs. Boy, sounds like a horse I want to bet.

Exactly, Barbaro beat NOTHING. And BB might be in a similar situation.

Dig deeper. Give me stats with ODDS. Give me some names/races of horses losing from the outside post that actually had a shot to win the race. Even though it's over a 4 year period, I can't believe that there are many races, given the 1 or 2 carded each week.


I agree with the last part. If I'm waiting around to make a killing on BB and then feel skunked when he gets the outside post, I'm definitely in need of a method tuneup.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

its pretty much a death sentence if you ask me for a horse making its 2 turn debut. He'll need to be a monster to get it done from out there. the data for nine furlongs at the new Gulfstream makes it clear that its one of the extreme cases when post position really does count in a big way.
maybe he'll be the first to do it, that would be impressive.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

its pretty much a death sentence if you ask me for a horse making its 2 turn debut. He'll need to be a monster to get it done from out there. the data for nine furlongs at the new Gulfstream makes it clear that its one of the extreme cases when post position really does count in a big way.
maybe he'll be the first to do it, that would be impressive.

Give me data that's MEANINGFUL, Jim.

Give me information on horses with LEGITIMATE SHOTS that broke from the outside. How many could there have possibly been in the past 20 years, let alone since they REDID the track?

...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Give me data that's MEANINGFUL, Jim.

Give me information on horses with LEGITIMATE SHOTS that broke from the outside. How many could there have possibly been in the past 20 years, let alone since they REDID the track?

okay tell me if this has more meaning for you. I cannot answer your questions about which horse broke from the 12 post in the past that had a realistic chance. What I can do is give you some data from my database which covers 82 nine furlong races run in the country this year. by comparing the Gulfstream results to all other tracks I think you'll agree that the post position bias is obvious. you are correct that there is not much data for post 12. there are only four starters in my sample from post 12 and no winners anywhere. but you can see by the trend that is established from the inner posts that do have a larger sample size.

below I am giving the impact values for each rail position at nine furlongs for Gulfstream alone, and then for all tracks other than Gulfstream. for anyone that doesn't know, impact values give you an idea of whether a particular position is under or over represented with regard to whole. A figure over 1 means more winners come from that post than the average, under 1 means fewer winners than the average are winning.

impact values by post position
pos 1, Gulf 2.49, other .71
pos 2, Gulf 1.94, other 1.13
pos 3, Gulf 1.38, other .71
pos 4, Gulf .55, other 1.13
pos 5, Gulf .55, other 1.44
pos 6, Gulf .31, other .98
pos 7, Gulf .86, other 1.25
pos 8, Gulf 0.0, other .30
pos 9, Gulf 0.0, other .88
pos 10, Gulf 0.0, other 1.67
pos 11, Gulf 0.0, other 1.07
pos 12, Gulf 0.0, other 0.0

It plain as day how the inner posts at Gulstream have a much larger share of the winners compared to the distribution at other tracks.

A more knowledgeable person than I has suggested that they will likely scratch, and target another race. I know I would especially since he needs the earnings to make the big race.

[Bobby Fischer]

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

[SniperSB23]

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

I hope you're kidding if you think the post won't severely compromise Big Brown's chances. I just commented cause it's just funny to see a replay of the Fountain of Youth thread already with someone claiming the unproven horse from the 12 hole will crush the field.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

How do you know? He had very little chance the only time he tried dirt. He runs up close and drew the 12 hole against a good field.

[whodey17]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but how many horses have started in posts 11 and 12 over the past 4 years?

Here come the trolls...

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

I'm not doubting that Big Brown is a very good horse... I'm just going with the facts and the fact is that no horse has won from that post in a 9 furlong race.

[sumitas]

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.