Beware

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Yankee Bravo is hardly the best west coast horse. He's no where near their best. The point was that he improved from synthetic to dirt in the LA Derby like his Beyers will suggest, so that it's not necessarily the right thing to think that Colonel John will regress on the dirt surface or that he might not improve on the dirt surface since his breeding favors the dirt surface. Yankee Gentleman's can usually run on both surfaces, although Yankee Bravo has more turf breeding, but Colonel John's breeding is basically all dirt.

Everyone needs all the luck and help they can get in the Derby no matter what horse they pick in the future bets.

how is a loss considered an improvement over a win? yesterday was yankee bravos first loss after two wins on turf and one on awt. whether it was the dirt or the competition, i'd think they would have expected a bit more from him yesterday before continuing on the derby trail. maybe i'd be a bit higher on him had he at least managed a second ahead of the pace setter attempting his first stakes start.

colonel john may be better than yankee bravo, but i don't see how that translates to him being a good dirt horse.

and yes, all future bets require a bit of luck. but betting on a horse making a surface change, shipping, going 10f for the first time, while attempting to run in a huge field full of top quality horses who are not making so many changes probably requires more than the normal amount of luck.