KY Derby Future Wager (Pool 2)

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good point, right there is some value.

I thought the same thing, but 10-1 will not happen. I beleive it's sitting at
6-1 right now.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I thought the same thing, but 10-1 will not happen. I beleive it's sitting at
6-1 right now.

I think it will close around 5-1 and 6-1, and I think it would still have value at that level. But as you note, my original comment was in response to the poster who waid he/she didn't see any value looking at the morning line. At 10-1, the value of "all others" would be monstrous, IMO.

--Dunbar

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think it will close around 5-1 and 6-1, and I think it would still have value at that level. But as you note, my original comment was in response to the poster who waid he/she didn't see any value looking at the morning line. At 10-1, the value of "all others" would be monstrous, IMO.

--Dunbar

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

especially since Baffert is apparently training all 400+ of them:

Number Name Trainer Morning Line Current Odds
1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 32
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 44
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 14
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 27
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 16
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 9
7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 16
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 23
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 51
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 18
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 47
13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 37
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 22
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 24
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 81
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 5
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99
19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 38
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 83
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 7/2
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 48
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 44
24 All Other Three Ye Bob Baffert 10 8

--Dunbar

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

if anything is clear its that elysium fields is top 5..

[Kasept]

CURRENT ODDS IN THE FUTURE WAGER (11:30am)


1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 34
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 58
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 18
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 28
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 17
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 11

7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 12
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 22
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 59
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 22
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 50

13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 36
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 23
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 41
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 97
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 4
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 41
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 36
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 4
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 45
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 46
24 All Other 3YO 10 5

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

if anything is clear its that elysium fields is top 5..

Got my eye on him also. Blinks, stretch, ..... See if he moves forward yet again next time. But I don't think 22-1 is worth it for now.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I like both Elysium Fields and Colonel John at those odds.

I also think the the Paulo Lobo horse is better than some of these who are at much lower odds.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

Closed at 6.5-1. Pretty generous, IMO. It would have been 6.6-1 without my bet. Sorry! ;>)

--Dunbar

[Kasept]

FINAL ODDS IN THE FUTURE WAGER RND 2


1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 45
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 49
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 17
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 26
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 16
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 12

7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 15
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 17
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 51
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 20
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 67

13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 53
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 27
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 35
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 99
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 4
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 47
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 19
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 9-2
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 41
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 33
24 All Other 3YO 10 6

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

FINAL ODDS IN THE FUTURE WAGER RND 2


1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 45
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 49
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 17
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 26
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 16
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 12

7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 15
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 17
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 51
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 20
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 67

13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 53
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 27
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 35
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 99
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 4
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 47
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 19
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 9-2
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 41
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 33
24 All Other 3YO 10 6

You can get the actual 'will pays' at: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/ne...ce-pool-2-kdfw , and then clicking "final odds" at the bottom of the page.

Among the favs, Pyro is 4-1, War Pass is 4.6-1, and All Others is 6.5-1.

Among the "99-1"'s, Smooth Air is actually 192-1, Gayego is 112.10-1, and Nikki's is 99.20-1.

--Dunbar