7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

Exactly. This is what I meant when I said her pps will stand out.